Global finance blog - news, jokes, life…

It looks like ice — but this ice could one day be used to heat your home.

It’s actually not ice at all, but crystallized natural gas, and if scientists can figure out how to harvest it cheaply enough, it could become a vast new source of energy available in just about every country in the world.

The big advantage to these crystals, known as methane hydrates, are their abundance. They are found beneath the sea floor off every continent, and under the arctic tundra.

Plus, they’re estimated to hold twice as much carbon as all the known reserves of oil, coal and natural gas combined.

"The potential is enough to power humanity from now until the asteroid hits," said Peter Tertzakian, chief energy economist at ARC Financial, a Calgary-based private equity firm.

But citing cost and the abundance of conventional natural gas, Tertzakian said this resource will likely "remain on the margins" for two or three decades.

Origins

The crystals are formed when methane gas, which results from the natural decomposition of animals and plants, comes into contact with water at just the right temperature and pressure.

Finding that sweet spot is actually much much more common than finding the conditions needed for the formation of conventional gas and oil, which require very specific geology. This is why oil is found in some places but not others.

Crystal gas forms almost any place there’s low temperature, high pressure and water, making the organism-rich continental slopes ideal spots.

The gas crystals are usually found between a few hundred feet to several thousand feet below the ocean floor and require deep drilling to bring them to the surface. They’re most prevalent in water over 1,000 feet deep, and up to about 200 miles offshore.

Although they’ve been known about since the early 1980s, only in the last 10 years has significant work gone into studying them and figuring out how to extract them.

The U.S. government currently runs a multi-agency research project with scientists from the Department of Energy, the U.S. Geological Survey and the Minerals Management Service, among others instant credit report. They’ve partnered with a few corporations, including BP (BP) at a site in Alaska’s North Slope and Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500) in the Gulf of Mexico.

Harvesting

Just because a huge amount of the gas exists doesn’t mean it all can be collected.

No one has figured out how much gas can be recovered using current technology, said Timothy Collett, a research geologist at the USGS.

But at the BP site in Alaska, Collett said using current technology to go after crystal gas would effectively double the known gas reserves there.

"We’re chipping away at the technical issue," he said. "We just have to get at the economics."

And it’s the economics that really hold this up.

There are several ways to bring crystal gas to the surface. But the most efficient seems to be to drill a well, like a conventional oil or natural gas well, then decrease the pressure inside. The decreased pressure will cause the crystals to revert to gas and flow out of the well.

But depressurizing a well requires creating a vacuum by continuously pumping the water out of it. That’s an expensive proposition.

Collett said in the Arctic, the cheapest place to extract this gas, costs vary. It can be just as expensive as it is now to produce conventional natural gas, to twice that amount. Going offshore gets even more expensive.

Furthermore, with all the gas currently coming online in the United States from the vast shale reserves, it’s doubtful crystal gas is going to see much investment in the near term.

"Why would anybody allocate money to gas hydrates, when there’s almost a gas glut emerging," said Tertzakian, the economist at ARC.

Yet once the shale gas begins to run out, or if there’s a significant increase in demand for cleaner burning natural gas plants, it may be nice to know this resource is available.  

Source

Payday loans online from $100 to 1000 loan payday with no faxing. Get cash advance loans now. Click here for immediate funding.

Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress on Wednesday that government action has helped start an economic recovery, but that he’s worried about the state of the job market.

Bernanke also changed his stance and said he’d be willing to consider supporting some legislation that’s pending before Congress that would make the Fed more accountable.

In testimony about monetary policy before the House Financial Services Committee, Bernanke noted that the recession continues to abate, but not when it comes to the job market, which "has been hit especially hard," he said.

"The job market remains quite weak, with the unemployment rate near 10 percent and job openings scarce," Bernanke said.

The Fed chairman said he’s particularly worried about the long-term impact on workers skills and wages and the increasing incidence of long-term unemployment.

"Indeed, more than 40 percent of the unemployed have been out of work six months or more, nearly double the share of a year ago," he said.

Bernanke also said that he expects inflation to remain in check for some time, as oil prices have flattened out and housing costs have risen very slowly, thanks to high vacancy rates.

"According to most measures, longer-term inflation expectations have remained relatively stable," he said.

Over the past year, Bernanke has faced a mixed reception whenever he’s appeared on Capitol Hill. Lawmakers credit him for pulling the economy out of the greatest recession since the Great Depression. But they also blame him for missing signals of the recession and for overlooking consumer protections.

However, the Senate voted overwhelmingly in January to confirm him for a second term.

Before Bernanke spoke, several Republican lawmakers said they particularly wanted to ask the Fed chairman about why the job market remains weak, even though Congress passed a massive $700 billion stimulus package last year quick payday loans.

House Financial Services Chairman Barney Frank, D-Mass., noted that after the stimulus package passed, fewer jobs were lost.

"It is possible to debate what is the best way to do the stimulus, but no sensible human being can deny that the stimulus had a positive effect," Frank said.

Frank asked Bernanke, specifically, whether stimulus helped stem job losses and Bernanke answered "Yes.""I think most economists would agree that the stimulus created jobs, relative to the baseline," Bernanke said.

Surprising endorsement

Bernanke also said he is prepared to support pendinglegislation authorizing Congress’ Government Accountability Office to audit "the operational integrity, collateral policies, use of third-party contractors, accounting, financial reporting, and internal controls of these special credit and liquidity facilities."

Previously, Bernanke has fought any move by Congress to audit the Fed. But his new support is for a limited audit that would not venture into monetary policy.

He also said he now supports revealing the names of firms who got emergency cheap Fed loans during the financial crisis, "after an appropriate delay." The Fed has, in the past, fought such revelations.

But he drew the line at making immediately available the names of banks coming to the discount window on a short-term basis, saying it could undermine confidence.

– CNN senior producer Scott Spoerry contributed to this report 

Source

Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke took a half-step out of the shadows Wednesday. But for all his talk of transparency, Bernanke seems more intent on shoring up the Fed’s political flanks than on opening up the central bank’s books.

Bernanke said in testimony before the House Financial Services Committee that he would support a Government Accountability Office review of the Fed’s emergency lending facilities, and would back legislation identifying the firms taking Fed funding in these programs "after an appropriate delay."

This represents a softening of Bernanke’s opposition to an audit of some Fed operations by the GAO, the investigative arm of Congress.

In November, a congressional subcommittee approved an amendment calling for a full-fledged audit, prompting Bernanke to warn that a "takeover" of monetary policy by Congress could undermine market stability.

But Bernanke hasn’t forgotten about the Fed’s cherished independence. His pledge Wednesday to cooperate with an expanded GAO audit stops well short of giving Congress any oversight of monetary policy — the decisions the Fed makes regarding interest rates and banking reserves that affect the amount of money sloshing around in the economy.

"Clearly he’s trying to offer Congress something of a compromise, so he can keep monetary policy out of the discussion," said Mark Calabria, a former Senate Banking Committee staffer who is now director of financial regulation studies at the libertarian Cato Institute in Washington.

Bernanke’s proposal comes as anger over the financial bailouts of 2008 and 2009 has continued to build. Critics say the Fed has failed to fully explain how it arrived at bailout decisions that cost taxpayers billions of dollars.

Bernanke was expected to win reconfirmation to his four-year post as Fed chief in routine fashion. But the outcome appeared in doubt for much of last month before lobbying by the White House in Congress finally pushed the Senate to a 70-30 vote to reconfirm him.

With the economy struggling through the early stages of a jobless recovery and the government widely perceived to be in the pocket of Wall Street, it behooves Bernanke to meet his less vocal critics in Congress halfway, in hopes of forging a deal to preserve the Fed’s independence to set monetary policy.

"My sense is that he has seen the writing on the wall and realized that they cannot hide behind a veil of secrecy given the public outrage," said University of Oregon economics professor Tim Duy, who follows monetary policy at his Fed Watch blog fast cash without a hassle.

Yet it would be a mistake to make too much of this latest shift, given all the loopholes in the sort of audit Bernanke evidently envisions.

For instance, much of the anger over the bailouts has focused on the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s handling of its multistage, multibillion-dollar rescue of AIG (AIG, Fortune 500). Documents subpoenaed by Congress this year show the New York Fed pressured the insurer not to disclose the terms of the bailout in securities filings even when the company wanted to.

The key issue there was a list of the securities that had been insured by AIG and the banks that had purchased the derivatives conferring insurance. The New York Fed repeatedly opposed the release of this list, which shows that big banks including Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) and Deutsche Bank (DB) of Germany received full compensation for securities worth much less in the market.

Duy said Bernanke’s proposal wouldn’t make such a list of securities accepted as collateral or purchased by the Fed available to the public, though "this is what I think most critics really want."

That said, it wasn’t clear what one of the loudest and most persistent foes of the Fed, Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, was after Wednesday in his questioning of Bernanke.

Apparently making a case for an audit, Paul rambled on about the Fed’s alleged loans to Saddam Hussein in the 1980s and its purported plans to fund a bailout of Greece.

Bernanke responded that the allegations were "absolutely bizarre" before adding that the Fed has no plans to participate in a bailout of any foreign country.

As wacky as the exchange was, it could actually strengthen the case for a full audit. Regular reports from the GAO can only boost the pitifully low level of economic understanding in Congress, Calabria said.

And with rates already near zero and the Fed having spent more than $1 trillion supporting housing, the Fed may already appear to be bowing to political pressure to make sure the economy doesn’t deteriorate further in a key election year.

"I’m open to the case that we need Fed monetary independence, but I just don’t know that the Fed has made it persuasively," Calabria said. "It’s hard to believe Congress could make policy any looser than it is." 

Source

Greek central bank Governor George Provopoulos said he’s confident the government will meet its “very ambitious” deficit-reduction goals and ward off any further credit-rating downgrades.

Rating agencies “want evidence that the plan is implemented on target” and “some time will need to elapse before they can form a better judgment,” Provopoulos, also a European Central Bank council member, said in an interview in Athens on Feb. 19. “I have full confidence” in the government meeting its goals, he said. “They have to succeed. And they will, I’m sure of that.”

Greece’s financial distress could be exacerbated at the end of this year when the ECB is due to revert to old collateral rules that were loosened during the global recession. If Moody’s Investors Service cuts its Greek credit rating to the same level as the other major ratings companies, Greek government bonds would no longer be eligible as collateral at the ECB, making it more difficult for the nation to borrow.

“The government has said already on several occasions that it will take any additional measures required in order to achieve its goal,” Provopoulos said. “This gives me comfort. Even if some risks materialize — like growth — the government is prepared to take immediate corrective action.”

Skeptical Investors

Investors are skeptical that Greece can cut its budget deficit from 12.7 percent of gross domestic product to under 3 percent by 2012. The government’s plan assumes the economy will contract 0.3 percent this year before growing 1.5 percent in 2011. It shrank 2 percent last year, compared with the government’s forecast for a 1.2 percent contraction.

The premium investors charge to hold Greek 10-year bonds instead of the German benchmark soared to 396 basis points on Jan. 28, the most since 1998. The cost of insuring Greek bonds against default jumped to a record high, exceeding the rates in emerging Asian economies such as Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines.

Markets are overreacting, Provopoulos said.

“They take advantage of the weak link to make profits,” he said. “It’s clear that there is a certain degree of overshooting. Given the high degree of uncertainty in the markets, one should not expect that the situation will normalize overnight.”

If Greek debt were no longer eligible as ECB collateral, the government would find it harder to find buyers for its bonds and yields would probably rise.

‘Exactly As Promised’

The ECB currently accepts bonds rated BBB- by at least one rating agency as collateral for loans. Under the old rules, due to be reinstated on Jan. 1 next year, A- is the minimum rating required. Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings cut Greece’s credit grade to BBB+ in December.

Moody’s has said it may lower its A2 rating two steps to Baa1 if Greece only partially implements its deficit-cutting plans. That would render Greek bonds ineligible at the ECB.

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said on Jan. 14 that the Frankfurt-based central bank won’t make allowances “for the sake of any particular country” and Greece won’t win “any special treatment.”

The ECB will continue its enhanced credit support to the banking system, Provopoulos said, suggesting it may continue lending banks as much cash as they want at its benchmark rate, at least in weekly refinancing operations.

“The ECB never said ‘we have reached the end of the road’,” he said. “Of course there are signs of normalization of the situation, of an improvement. This will be taken into account” when policy makers decide in March on the next steps in the exit from emergency lending measures, Provopoulos said.

Under Pressure

European finance ministers turned up the pressure on Greece last week to rein in the region’s largest budget gap. The country might be asked to raise its value-added tax, introduce a levy on luxury goods and cut capital spending if it fails to show sufficient progress by mid-March, when the European Commission is due to review the government’s progress.

While European leaders on Feb. 11 pledged to take “determined and coordinated” action to support Greece if the need arose, they left open how they would respond to a fresh wave of speculative attacks against Greece or other countries such as Spain and Portugal, which are also struggling to cut their budget deficits.

Provopoulos said he takes the commitment of European governments to stand by Greece “at face value.” The lack of a detailed rescue plan isn’t disappointing, he said.

“Everybody knows how critical the situation is. Of course, an expression of willingness and readiness from the European family, the euro zone, to help in case it’s needed is quite reassuring and understandable.”

Source

About 155 employees at a Mississauga air conditioning manufacturer that abruptly closed three weeks ago did not get their back pay before Christmas, but finally collected some of it by New Year’s Day.

Bob Chernecki, a senior official for the Canadian Auto Workers, said on Monday that workers at the M&I Air Systems plant picked up cheques with two weeks of earnings worth more than $1,000 on Dec. 30 after a glitch with M&I’s bankers prevented earlier payment.

However, the workers are still waiting for cheques for a third week of work and vacation pay, plus some indication about the plant’s future, Chernecki added.

"They (the workers) have been told that management is making arrangements for the third week and vacation pay sometime later this month.

"Beyond that, there are no guarantees of anything until they know the status of the plant."

Chernecki also said the company didn’t give the employees eight weeks’ notice of a layoff, as required under provincial labour law.

M&I, which provides air-moving technology and systems for industrial and institutional buildings, missed a pay on Dec high quality business cards. 10 but told employees it would submit earnings the following Monday if they worked on the weekend to finish a project.

But the company didn’t pay the employees, who earn between $18 and $19.50 an hour, on the Monday and laid them off the next day without warning.

When demands for pay and information about the plant’s status were ignored, workers occupied the plant for more than three hours on Dec. 21. They left after M&I agreed to a meeting with the union.

M&I indicated it would provide workers with two weeks of back pay within a few days and a decision soon on whether the plant would reopen, Chernecki said.

"They (employees) should know this week or next whether they have a future," Chernecki said.

A company spokesman could not be reached for comment.

Source

Stocks closed sharply lower Thursday after Greece received another credit downgrade and the dollar rose on the U.S. central bank’s cautious comments.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) fell 133 points, or 1.3%. Declines were broad based, with 28 of the 30 Dow components ending lower.

The S&P 500 index (SPX) lost 13 points, or 1.2%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) slipped 27 points, or 1.2%.

The stock slump came as the dollar rebounded 1.3% against the euro, to its highest levels since September. The greenback was also up sharply on the pound and slightly higher against the yen.

The dollar jumped Thursday for two reasons, according to Craig Peckham, strategist at Jefferies & Co. First, he said, were the "continuing jitters" after the Federal Reserve on Wednesday left interest rates unchanged near 0%, saying weakness would remain for some time. Adding to those fears were reports that Greece has been downgraded by Standard and Poor’s.

S&P’s move came after health care companies complained that the country was behind on payments related to its public health system, and it follows Fitch Rating’s downgrade of Greece on Dec. 8.

Marc Chandler, chief foreign exchange strategist for Brown Brothers Harriman, said those downgrades and persistent worries about the economy are driving up the dollar — and these concerns could carry extra weight amid "very thin" volume ahead of the holidays.

"Santa Claus is giving a little present to people like me, who are dollar bulls," Chandler said.

Despite posting gains early in the session, stocks ended mixed Wednesday after the Fed’s interest rate announcement.

Financials take a hit: The slump slammed several bank shares, with Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) closing down 7.5%, American Express (AXP, Fortune 500) off 2% and JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) down 2.6%.

According to reports, the Treasury canceled plans to start selling off part of its 34% stake in Citi after its offering of 5.4 billion shares of common stock drew weak demand.

The offering was part of a plan Citi announced late Wednesday, in which the New York-based lender said it intends to raise $20.5 billion in the stock market in a plan to pay back its bailout funds.

"The market is struggling to absorb these staggering amounts of new issue," said Jefferies’ Peckham. "Marry that with the overriding theme of caution, and investors will be nervous."

Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) said late Wednesday it appointed senior executive Brian Moynihan as its new chief executive officer. Moynihan is currently the president of consumer and small business banking high risk personal loans. Exiting CEO Ken Lewis surprised the board of directors when he announced plans to retire in September. Shares were down 1.1%.

Economy: The Labor Department reported jobless claims rose unexpectedly last week, jumping by 7,000 to 480,000. Analysts predicted a decline to 465,000 new claims.

The November index of leading economic indicators, from the Conference Board, rose 0.9% — beating expectations of a 0.7% jump.

The Philadelphia Fed index, a regional read on manufacturing, far surpassed expectations. The reading jumped to 20.4 in December, the highest since April 2005, from 16.7 in November. Analysts expected a decline to 16.0.

In Washington, a Senate Banking committee voted 16-to-7 to confirm Ben Bernanke for another four-year term running the Federal Reserve.

Companies: Before the start of trading Thursday, package-delivery firm FedEx (FDX, Fortune 500) reported earnings of $1.10 per diluted share, down from $1.58 one year ago.

FedEx issued cautious guidance for the third quarter of 50 to 70 cents per diluted share. That fell short of forecasts of 84 cents per share, and the stock price lost 6.1%.

After the market close Thursday, Oracle (ORCL, Fortune 500) reported a profit of 39 cents a share versus 34 cents a year ago. The software company’s results beat analyst expectations of 36 cents per share.

Also after the bell, Nike (NKE, Fortune 500) reported a second-quarter profit of 76 cents a share, down from 80 cents a share. Analysts were looking for 71 cents a share.

Smartphone maker Palm (PALM) reported a wider-than-expected loss of 37 cents per share in its second fiscal quarter.

Palm’s rival, Blackberry maker Research in Motion (RIMM), earned $1.10 per share, up from 69 cents a year ago. RIM shares were up about 11% in after-hours trading.

World markets and commodities: Stocks in Asia ended mixed, with Tokyo’s Nikkei index falling 0.13% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index off 1.22%. European indexes settled lower.

Crude oil for January delivery fell 1 cent to settle at $72.65 a barrel, while gold for February delivery plunged $28.80 to end at $1,107.40 an ounce.

Bonds were higher, with the benchmark 10-year yield slipping to 3.49% from 3.59% late Wednesday.

Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers beat winners almost three to one on volume of 1.7 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners topped advancers almost three to one on volume of 1.9 billion shares. 

Source

With sales slow and credit tight, small merchants are scrambling to stock their shelves for the year’s biggest shopping season.

Retailers traditionally borrow money to buy holiday inventory. But credit for small businesses has dried up this year, and with the recession slowing sales, few merchants have cash on hand. The crunch is forcing business owners to find new ways to keep running.

For a handful of New York City retailers in one hard-hit stretch of Brooklyn, a small community lender is playing the role of Santa Claus. Lesia Bates Moss, president of Seedco Financial Services, noticed an ever-increasing number of vacant storefronts along Atlantic Avenue. In response, she hosted a meeting with a dozen area retailers to find out how her organization could help.

One common problem the merchants cited was getting enough credit to buy sufficient holiday inventory. So Seedco Financial, a nonprofit that specializes in financing for underserved communities, launched a streamlined holiday program: Retailers who could provide a marketing plan for spending the money and driving foot traffic would get fast loans.

On Monday, Seedco staffers started delivering checks. A typical loan request is for around $20,000, to be repaid over the next year at interest rates of 6% to 10%.

"It doesn’t take a lot in the way of capital access to help these businesses," Moss said. "We really needed to get money into the hands of these merchants before Black Friday, so they could stock their stores."

Toys and beer glasses: Karen Zebulon, the owner of toy and clothing retailer Gumbo on Atlantic Ave., is one of Seedco Financial’s borrowers.

"Especially this year, because we have had such hard times, we really need a boost," she said. "If I can really strategize and plan and buy the right merchandise, I think it can be a turning point for me."

Zebulon plans to ramp up her inventory of toys, because even in tight times, customers continue to spend on kids. She’s impressed at how quickly Seedco Financial got cash into her hands.

"This was — you could say — a godsend," she said. "It is saving me and saving a lot of other merchants that are receiving the loans." Without the financing, she would have been pulling a string of all-nighters trying to handcraft toys to stock her shelves.

Artez’n Gift and Gallery, which sells products made by local Brooklyn artisans, also got a loan from Seedco. Owner Jessica Furst got her check on Monday and "ran to the bank." She plans to use the cash to stock up on one of her best-selling items: pint glasses with illustrations of Brooklyn landmarks on them. They’re a proven customer lure, drawing in tourists and others who make a special trip to Artez’n for the glasses.

With sales slow this year, Furst wouldn’t have been able to afford to produce the Brooklyn beer glasses without the last-minute loan. "I would have been without them again, which would have been a loss of income for me, and possibly a loss of customer base," she said.

She will also use some of the loan money to fix the high-end printer she uses for her graphic design business. The small loan will make a big difference for Furst: "It will enable me to get back on my feet."

The big challenge for merchants will come over the next month. The National Retail Federation forecasts that this year’s holiday sales will decline 1%, to $437.6 billion.

"The real concern is, can you sell stuff?" said Bill Dunkelberg, chief economist of the National Federation of Independent Businesses. "I am sure inventory accumulation has been cautious. It doesn’t look like it is going to be much better than last year, which was terrible."

Squeezing by: Not every retailer is lucky enough to have a community lending program to turn to.

Clark Kepler’s dad opened Kepler’s Books in 1955. Like so many other independent bookstores, Kepler’s Books is fighting for sales in an industry now dominated by Big Box discount retailers and Internet book sellers. Four years ago, with the shop on the brink of closure, 25 members of the Silicon Valley community voluntarily donated $1 million to save the neighborhood bookstore.

The recession has further ravaged the business, which saw a double-digit sales decline. "We had the most difficult time this last several months with the cash-flow issues," Kepler said. "We managed to get through it, but we were robbing Peter to pay Paul every step of the way."

One way the shop is coping is by churning inventory faster than it typically would. Bookstores can return unsold goods to publishers, and Kepler is shuffling fast to fine-tune his holiday lineup.

"It is a mad scramble much of the time," he said. "We have needed to scrutinize our inventory more and more to be sure that we have books that are selling." A book that languishes is "like money sitting on the shelf that we are not utilizing."

Kepler could use additional financing to give his bookstore more breathing room, but he’s had little luck with the banks. He talked with one lender about a Small Business Administration-backed loan, but pulled out after deciding that the loan available for his shop wouldn’t be big enough to justify all the effort involved in the application process.

Kevin Stein, co-owner of the Montana Fish Company in Bozeman, Mont., is also frustrated with the banks. "We have been to every bank in town," he said. "If we could expand into a bigger facility, we could take on more business, we could hire more people — it is a win-win."

But so far, with no expansion loan yet available, Stein’s seafood and wine market isn’t doing its usual seasonal hiring. "We didn’t lay anyone off, but it was a combination of not rehiring and not hiring for the holiday season," Stein said. To make up for the staffing decrease, Stein and his co-owner have upped their own hours.

"As employees filtered out, we just simply didn’t rehire, which means I spent a lot less time at home," he said.

Like the merchants that borrowed from Seedco Financial, Stein is now looking outside the banking industry for help. He’s trying to get a loan directly from the Small Business Administration, through its disaster lending program. A natural glass explosion one block away from Montana Fish may make the company eligible.

Stein and his business partner, Travis Byerly, have been pulling together mountains of documentation.

"It is a little mind-boggling," Stein said of application process. "But it is a great loan if we can get it. It could be a game changer." 

Source

U.S. shoppers may stretch tight budgets this year to reward loved ones after months of thrift, a softening of heart that store chains hope will erase the holiday season sales debacle of 2008.

Retailers from Wal-Mart Stores to Gap, RadioShack and Walgreens opened their doors on Thursday as U.S. families celebrate Thanksgiving, aiming to capture early bird shoppers a day before the official start of holiday shopping on “Black Friday.”

The unsettled state of the U.S. economy, with a 26-year high in unemployment and tighter access to credit, has industry holiday sales forecasts varying from a decline of 3 percent to an increase of 2 percent.

“The consumer is confused. They don’t know whether to spend or not,” said Marshal Cohen, senior analyst at retail consultant NPD Group.

Carlos Abril was browsing at an Old Navy in Manhattan on Thursday, but said he would not shop nearly as much this year.

“It’s tough this year, so we’re cutting back,” he said. Abril does not plan to spend on himself but would buy gifts for his nephews and other children in his family.

A weak U.S. dollar, however, has been a boon to tourists.

“Stuff is always cheaper here anyway and even more so with the dollar,” said Katy Moore, a visitor from Ireland, who was shopping at Foot Locker. She exited the store with a bag and said she would spend quite of bit of money while on vacation.

As the year-end holidays draw closer and deeper discounts beckon, consumers may splurge a bit more. Industry experts expect a strong turnout on the Black Friday weekend, but caution it will not mean a bumper holiday season as shopping trails off in the weeks before Christmas.

“The recession last year was a shock to the consumer. This year they are already tired of it,” Cohen said. “They might even reward themselves for being frugal for the whole year.”

The psyche of American shoppers is being closely watched, as a return to spending would drive overall U.S. economic growth. Early hopes for a consumer-led recovery have pushed retail shares up 47 percent this year, compared with a 23 percent rise for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index.

Cohen, a 30-year industry veteran, travels to malls all along the U.S. East Coast over the holiday weekend. He now sets out on Thanksgiving Day as so many more stores open on the holiday itself. While traffic to stores on the Thursday is relatively light, people who do make it out are mostly hard-core shoppers and highly likely to buy.

“It’s the ultimate conversion factor,” he said.

For a graphic on U.S. holiday sales trends, click on (here)

For a Reuters Insider segment on holiday sales, click on(link.reuters.com/wuj63g) 

Read more

Japanese government ministers increased pressure on the central bank to tackle falling prices in the world’s second-largest economy.

“My understanding is that Japan is in a deflationary state,” Deputy Prime Minister Naoto Kan told reporters today in Tokyo. The government will tell the central bank that “monetary policy plays a significant role” in fighting deflation, he said.

Kan’s comments, echoed by other ministers after a Cabinet meeting today, underscore the government’s growing rift with the central bank, which is concluding a two-day monetary policy meeting today. Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii, who said today deflation is a critical factor when setting economic policy, and Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama have said the central bank is too optimistic about the outlook for the economy.

“There’s a sense of crisis” regarding deflation, Fujii said today, calling on the central bank to respond to the threat while adding that rates are already “very low” limiting room for further monetary policy action.

The world’s second-largest economy grew an annualized 4.8 percent last quarter, the fastest pace in more than two years, while a gauge of prices excluding imports fell the most in 51 years, a Cabinet Office report showed this week cash advance in one hour. Consumer prices excluding fresh food dropped for a seventh month in September and the central bank said last month it expects them to keep sliding through fiscal 2011.

Independence

The central bank, whose independence is guaranteed by law, is accustomed to such comments by government officials. Lawmakers from the previous ruling Liberal Democratic Party would call on the policy board to keep rates low, with some politicians such as Hideyuki Aizawa going as far as suggesting the governor’s job was on the line if he didn’t yield to government requests.

Kan, who is also the nation’s economic and fiscal policy minister, didn’t elaborate on what steps the Bank of Japan should take. Economists expect central bank Governor Masaaki Shirakawa and his policy board to keep interest rates at 0.1 percent today.

Financial Services Minister Shizuka Kamei said the bank should be more aware of aligning its policies with the government when prices are falling.

Source

Carla Eng, president of Abstract Displays Inc., is one of 11 Ohio businesswomen named Ohio Keys to Success award winners for 2009, the Ohio Department of Development said Monday.

Eng was named a winner in the Marketing/Advertising/Public Relations category – the only winner from Southwest Ohio. She and other winners will be honored Thursday, at an afternoon ceremony at the Vern Riffe Center's Capital Theater in downtown Columbus.

“The department is proud to recognize Ohio’s businesswomen who play a key role in the economic growth and future of our state,” said Lisa Patt-McDaniel, director of the Ohio Department of Development, in a news release.

Abstract Displays, headquartered in Blue Ash, provides exhibits and displays for trade shows and other events low cost payday loans. The company, this year, was named to the Northern Kentucky Chamber of Commerce’s “Emerging 30” list of small businesses with outstanding revenue growth, and was also named a “Torch Award” winner by the Cincinnati Better Business Bureau for marketplace ethics.

The Keys to Success awards are sponsored by the ODD’s Division of Entrepreneurship and Small Business; Ohio Small Business Development Centers; U.S. Small Business Administration; Central Ohio Women’s Business Center; Key4Women/KeyBank; Kroger Co. and the ODD’s Minority Contractors Business Assistance Program.

Source