Mexico's central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged, breaking a streak of three consecutive increases, as policy makers said economic growth may slow and inflation will probably remain within forecasts.
The bank's five-member board, led by Governor Guillermo Ortiz, left the key lending rate at 8.25 percent.
While inflation may continue to accelerate, the bank's statement that price increases will probably remain within its forecasts signal policy makers will leave rates unchanged for the rest of the year, said Gabriel Casillas, an economist at Banco UBS Pactual. The bank raised rates three quarters of a point since June in a bid to tame the fastest inflation in five years.
“It's a less hawkish statement,'' said Casillas, who is based in Mexico City. “Saying inflation will be within the forecasts confirms that the hiking cycle is finished.''
The bank said in a statement that the economy was more likely to weaken because the global economic slump has intensified, and that consumption and job creation have been reduced in Mexico.
“The risks of slower economic activity have increased,'' the statement said.
The bank's decision to leave rates on hold matched the forecast of 22 of 23 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. One economist forecast a quarter point increase.
Consumer Prices
Higher food and energy costs helped push consumer prices up 5.57 percent in August from a year earlier. Still, inflation remains within policy makers' third-quarter forecast of 5.25 percent to 5.75 percent.
In July, the bank increased its inflation forecasts through 2010 because of higher-than-expected commodity costs. Since then, the prices of crude oil, wheat, soy and corn have dropped at least 30 percent since their record highs.
Policy makers may also have been hesitant to increase rates because of the turmoil caused by the world's worst credit crisis since the Great Depression, said Alberto Bernal, an economist with Bulltick Securities Corp. in Miami.
“It's better just to stay pat,'' Bernal said in a telephone interview paydayloans. “The uncertainty is just too much.''
Finance Minister Agustin Carstens said earlier this week that economic growth will be reduced by the financial crisis in the U.S. and the fall in global oil prices may have a “serious'' effect on Mexico, which gets 40 percent of its federal budget from crude.
Gross Domestic Product
Gross domestic product would have expanded 4 percent this year without the problems in the U.S. housing and credit markets, compared with the government's forecast of 2.4 percent growth, Carstens said in an interview on the Televisa network.
Mexico's monetary policy in coming months will depend in part on the U.S.'s ability to resolve its financial crisis, said Rafael de la Fuente, a senior economist at BNP Paribas SA in New York.
“Worse-than-expected headline numbers won't push the central bank to hike if there are problems in the U.S.,'' said de la Fuente, who forecasts an increase in the fourth quarter. The Mexican bank won't raise rates so long as the U.S. credit crisis puts a drag on the Mexican economy, he said.
The central bank forecasts that inflation will peak at 6 percent in the final quarter of this year then subside in 2009. It isn't expected to reach the central bank's goal of 3 percent until at least 2010.
Economists surveyed by Citigroup Inc.'s Banamex unit predict the bank will leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged for the remainder of the year, according to a survey released yesterday.
Economists forecast that Banco de Mexico will reduce the key lending rate next year, the survey said.
Mexico's weakening economy makes the central bank wary of tightening consumption more with a rate increase, said Vitoria Saddi, an economist with RGE Monitor in New York.
“They don't have any interest in forcing the slowdown even further,'' Saddi said.
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