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January 18, 2010

EPA floats unique Fla. water quality rule

Filed under: technology — Tags: , , — Gladiator @ 3:00 pm

For the first time in history, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is proposing special water quality standards that would apply to only one state – Florida.

The EPA, responding partly to a lawsuit, plans a series of limits on phosphorus and nitrogen – nutrients that come from fertilizer and wastewater – for Florida waters that are different from the rest of the U.S.

A news release from the agency said the new limits are “to protect people’s health, aquatic life and the long-term recreational uses of Florida’s waters, which are a critical part of the state’s economy.”

But, one group already is slamming the proposal as a costly burden for the state. The Don’t Tax Florida Coalition, made up mostly of agricultural interests, sent out a news release, calling the proposed standards “a de facto water tax from Washington that will impose major economic hardship on Florida’s battered economy, with questionable benefits to our environment.”

The coalition said one study estimates a $50 billion infrastructure bill to comply with the standards, which will result in higher water bills.

“It simply makes no sense to force Florida to spend billions of scarce dollars in excess of what is necessary to meet an arbitrary federal regulation,” said Mark Wilson, president and CEO of the Florida Chamber of Commerce, in the coalition’s news release.

The new proposal is the result of a 2009 consent decree between the EPA and Florida Wildlife Federation.

According to the EPA, nutrient pollution can damage drinking water sources; increase exposure to harmful algal blooms, which are made of toxic microbes that can cause damage to the nervous system or even death; and form byproducts in drinking water from disinfection chemicals, some of which have been linked with serious illnesses, such as bladder cancer.

The EPA also said nutrient problems can happen locally or much farther downstream, leading to degraded lakes, reservoirs and estuaries, and to hypoxic “dead” zones where aquatic life can no longer survive short term personal loans. High amounts of nitrogen and phosphorus in surface water result in harmful algal blooms, dead fish, reduced mating grounds and nursery habitats for fish.

“Florida has led the way with rigorous scientific analysis and data collection needed to address nutrient pollution. By relying on the best science, we can set standards that protect people’s health and preserve water bodies used for drinking, swimming, fishing and tourism,” said Peter S. Silva, assistant administrator for EPA’s Office of Water, in a release. “New water quality standards, developed in collaboration with the state, will help protect and restore inland waters that are a critical part of Florida's history, culture and economic prosperity.”

A 2008 Florida Department of Environmental Protection report assessing water quality revealed that about 1,000 miles of rivers and streams, 350,000 acres of lakes and 900 square miles of estuaries are not meeting the state's water quality standards because of excess nutrients. These represent about 16 percent of Florida’s assessed river and stream miles, 36 percent of assessed lake acres and 25 percent of assessed estuary square miles. The actual number of miles and acres of waters impaired for nutrients is likely higher, as there are waters that have not yet been assessed.

The proposed action, announced Friday, also seeks comment on a new regulatory process for setting standards to drive water quality improvements in already impaired waters. The proposed new regulatory provision, called restoration standards, would be specific to nutrients in Florida.

The EPA will accept public comments on the proposed standards and will conduct three public hearings on the proposed rule. The hearings are scheduled for Feb. 16, 17 and 18 in Tallahassee, Orlando and West Palm Beach, respectively.

The West Palm Beach hearing will be 1-5 p.m. and 7-10 p.m., at the Holiday Inn Palm Beach International Airport, at 1301 Belvedere Road.

Source

December 18, 2009

U.K. Unemployment Falls for First Time Since 2008

Filed under: money — Tags: , , — Gladiator @ 1:30 pm

U.K. unemployment unexpectedly fell for the first time since February 2008, adding to signs the economy is emerging from its deepest recession in at least three decades.

Claims for jobless benefits declined by 6,300 in November to 1.63 million, the Office for National Statistics said in London today. The median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 26 economists was an increase of 12,500. The number of people seeking work in the three months through October rose 21,000 to 2.49 million, the smallest gain in 17 months.

The figures are a boost for Prime Minister Gordon Brown, who is counting on an economic revival to lift support for his Labour Party before a general election due by June. The economy has lost more than 600,000 jobs since the recession began, with the axe falling hardest on people under the age of 24.

“This a real shot in the arm,” Howard Archer, chief European economist at HIS Global Insight in London, said by telephone. “It’s very encouraging. However, I don’t think it’s an end for the rise in unemployment, which may continue until the end of next year. There’s a still a danger the economy may relapse next year, so I don’t think it’ll have a big impact on the Bank of England’s view of things things.”

Market Reaction

The pound rose after the report and was trading at $1.6334 as of 10:38 a.m. in London compared with $1.6240 yesterday. The 10-year gilt yield was little changed on the day at 3.892 percent.

The number of people in work rose by 53,000 to 28.9 million in the quarter through October, the biggest increase for 17 months, the statistics office said. In October, the number of claims rose by 5,900 instead of the 12,900 originally reported. The claimant rate in November was unchanged at 5 percent.

“It is encouraging that there are more people in jobs as we get near to Christmas, and also that so many more young people have been helped,” Work and Pensions Secretary Yvette Cooper said instant payday loan. “But it is still tough for a lot of people, and we still expect unemployment to increase again. So we are determined to do more.”

Unemployment has risen by less than officials initially predicted as companies froze pay and cut working hours to retain skilled labor needed once the economy returns to growth.

Jobless Rate

At 7.9 percent, the U.K. jobless rate is below the 10 percent in the U.S. and the 9.8 percent euro-region average. Many economists expect it to peak below 10 percent, compared with the postwar high of 11.9 percent record in 1984. Treasury forecasts published last week show the level of jobless claims is close to a peak.

The opposition Conservative lead in opinion polls has shrunk in recent weeks to less than 10 percentage points after Brown stepped up attacks on bankers and portrayed the Conservatives as the party of the rich. The margin is narrow enough to deny the opposition an outright majority at the election.

The labor market is likely nevertheless weigh on the wider economy, and companies may be slow to resume hiring as they initially increase the hours of existing workers, economists say.

Average earnings growth picked up to 1.5 percent in the quarter through October from 1.4 percent, with the rate excluding bonuses unchanged at 1.7 percent.

The fragility of the recovery was underlined earlier this month when Corus Group Ltd., the European unit of India’s Tata Steel, said it will cut 1,700 jobs at its Teeside plant in northeast England after demand for metal dropped. Diageo Plc, the world’s biggest liquor-maker, is also cutting jobs after closing facilities including a packaging plant and a distillery.

Source

December 4, 2009

Federal Reserve reports economic improvement

Filed under: business — Tags: , , — Gladiator @ 9:39 am

The economic recovery gained traction in late fall as shoppers spent a bit more and factories bumped up production. That assessment Wednesday by the Federal Reserve marked its most upbeat view since the economy tumbled into recession two years ago.

The Fed’s new snapshot of business barometers found that conditions generally have improved since the last report in late October.

Eight of the Fed’s 12 regions surveyed reported some pickup in activity or improved conditions, the Fed said. Those regions were: Boston, New York, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas and San Francisco payday loans. The new report adds to evidence that the economy is rebounding after the worst recession since the 1930s.

The main challenge for Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, who will be on Capitol Hill today seeking a second term, is to sustain the fledgling rebound, especially after benefits of government support fade next year. To that end, the Fed is expected to hold a key bank lending rate at a record low near zero when its meets on Dec. 15-16.

Source

December 3, 2009

GM chief Fritz Henderson resigns

Filed under: management — Tags: , , — Gladiator @ 9:24 am

In a surprise move, General Motors chief executive Fritz Henderson resigned Tuesday, giving the battered government-owned automaker its third boss in less than a year.

The move was announced by GM Chairman Ed Whitacre following what he described as a "hectic" meeting of the company’s board of directors, which had been put in place with government oversight after the company’s trip through bankruptcy earlier this year.

Whitacre said he will take over as CEO of the nation’s largest automaker until a replacement is found, and that a search for a new president and CEO would start immediately.

The Treasury Department, which owns 61% of GM stock, was informed of the move but not consulted in advance, according to GM spokesman Chris Preuss.

An administration official said the decision "was made by the board of directors alone" and that the administration was not involved in the decision.

Henderson, 51, a career GM employee, took over as CEO after Rick Wagoner was forced out in March by the Obama administration as part of GM’s government-supervised restructuring.

Whitacre did not answer any questions about the change or the reasons behind them.

"While momentum has been building over the past several months, all involved agree that changes needed to be made," he said.

At the time of his appointment as CEO, many analysts questioned whether Henderson, who has worked at GM for 25 years since graduating from business school, was the right executive to change GM’s insular culture.

Others have said, however, that bringing in an outsider would have been risky given the size and scope of GM and the complexity of its problems.

Steven Rattner, the former head of a Treasury task force that led the government takeover, wrote in Fortune in October that Henderson was originally offered the title of interim CEO but asked not to have the "interim" attached to his title because he didn’t want his authority undercut.

For his part, Henderson had pointed out that the board could fire him at any time.

Whitacre said Tuesday that he and the board are convinced that GM is moving in the right direction.

But GM recently reported a loss of $1.2 billion since its emergence from bankruptcy on July 10 through Sept. 30. Meanwhile, rivals Toyota Motor (TM) and Ford Motor (F, Fortune 500) reported surprise profits in the period due to the spike in sales from the Cash for Clunkers program.

GM also suffered setbacks in its reorganization effort.

The announced sale of its Saturn brand to the Penske Automotive Group (PAG, Fortune 500) fell through earlier this summer. Last week a Swedish buyer for its Saab brand backed out, citing delays in GM closing the sale.

The failed deals forced GM to announce plans to close Saturn and look for an alternative buyer for Saab. GM said Tuesday that it would weigh various offers for Saab for another month, but that closing it was an option.

GM also has not been able to finalize the sale of its Hummer brand to a Chinese manufacturer on the announced timetable.

Finally, last month GM said that it had decided not to sell a majority stake in its main European brand Opel to a group led by Canadian parts supplier Magna International (MGA). It is now seeking help from European governments to restructure that business to end losses there.

David Cole, chairman of the Center for Automotive Research, a Michigan think tank, said he believes that Henderson and the board were on the same page on the Opel deal. He said he doesn’t believe the Saab deal was big enough to spark a falling out, but that it’s possible it was seen as a sign by the board that Henderson was not able to execute the company’s plans.

"My guess is it is something that materialized very quickly," Cole said. "This is not something that was brewing for some time."

Still others say they saw the writing on the wall.

"This does not come entirely as a shock," commented Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Michelle Krebs. "Ed Whitacre was the government’s choice to lead the company and the Automotive Task Force always appeared lukewarm about the idea of Fritz staying in the top job," she said.

"In recent months, the board and Henderson appeared as if they were not on the same page," added Krebs.

Tom Libby, president of the Society of Automotive Analysts, said he had heard rumors recently that Vice Chairman Bob Lutz would replace Henderson. Libby believes that Lutz is still in the running.

Lutz, 77, is credited with helping to change GM’s slow-moving insular culture and with greatly improving its product lineup in his recent role as global head of product development. Lutz now heads GM’s marketing efforts.

"It’s indisputable that, as a product person, he’s been very successful, but this is a very different situation," Libby said.

Cole said he’d be surprised if GM went with an insider to be the new CEO. The job should be attractive to outside candidates even with wage limits imposed by government ownership.

"With the reorganization, they’ve take a lot of costs out of each vehicle," Cole said. "When industrywide sales start to improve, they should get very profitable very fast."

But industrywide sales have yet to show much improvement. On Tuesday industrywide sales for November came in little changed from the weak sales levels of a year ago for the second straight month.

Henderson announced last month that GM would start to repay its $6.7 billion loan to Treasury and make a $1 billion payment by the end of the year. But the government’s ability to recover most of the $50 billion it sunk into the reorganization of GM will depend on its ability to sell stock to the public at an improved price.

GM, because of the bankruptcy, has not disclosed Henderson’s 2009 pay. Treasury Department records show that the company’s top executive salary this year is $950,000 in cash and total compensation of $5.4 million. 

Source

November 21, 2009

Manulife stock issue sparks ire and frenzy

Filed under: money — Tags: , , — Gladiator @ 11:39 am

Investors reacted sharply and in great numbers Thursday to a move by Manulife Financial Corp., Canada’s largest insurance company, to raise $2.5 billion in a major stock issue.

On the Toronto Stock Exchange, Manulife was down $1.23, or 6.1 per cent, at $18.95 as frenzied trading saw almost 19.2 million shares change hands.

The firm’s stock has been under pressure for months after it cut its dividends in half earlier in the year.

But even savvy investors were caught by surprise by Wednesday’s decision, which Manulife admitted would be dilutive to shares but was praised by chief executive Donald Guloien as something that would build "the fortress level of capital necessary to buffer against more conservative economic scenarios."

That didn’t sit well with Stephen Jarislowsky of Jarislowsky Fraser Ltd., one of Manulife’s largest shareholders.

"I was terribly disappointed because I was left very much under the impression that the company, if they cut the dividend, would have fortress levels of capital and that the last thing they wanted to see was more share dilution," Jarislowsky said in an interview.

Under the bought-deal financing with underwriters, led by Scotia Capital Inc. and RBC Dominion Securities Inc., Manulife will issue about 132 million shares at $19 each.

Upon closing, Manulife subsidiary The Manufacturers Life Insurance Co. will have access to the highest level of capital since it became a public company, Manulife said.

The company said that funds raised will be used for general corporate purposes, which may include contributions of capital to its insurance business and other subsidiaries, as well as potential acquisitions.

The public offering, which will dilute Manulife’s current share capital of 1.61 billion shares by more than 8 per cent, was expected to close Nov. 30, although it was reportedly being taken up more slowly than expected on Thursday.

Source

November 17, 2009

Abstract Display’s Eng wins Ohio Keys to Success award

Filed under: legal — Tags: , , — Gladiator @ 3:48 pm

Carla Eng, president of Abstract Displays Inc., is one of 11 Ohio businesswomen named Ohio Keys to Success award winners for 2009, the Ohio Department of Development said Monday.

Eng was named a winner in the Marketing/Advertising/Public Relations category – the only winner from Southwest Ohio. She and other winners will be honored Thursday, at an afternoon ceremony at the Vern Riffe Center's Capital Theater in downtown Columbus.

“The department is proud to recognize Ohio’s businesswomen who play a key role in the economic growth and future of our state,” said Lisa Patt-McDaniel, director of the Ohio Department of Development, in a news release.

Abstract Displays, headquartered in Blue Ash, provides exhibits and displays for trade shows and other events low cost payday loans. The company, this year, was named to the Northern Kentucky Chamber of Commerce’s “Emerging 30” list of small businesses with outstanding revenue growth, and was also named a “Torch Award” winner by the Cincinnati Better Business Bureau for marketplace ethics.

The Keys to Success awards are sponsored by the ODD’s Division of Entrepreneurship and Small Business; Ohio Small Business Development Centers; U.S. Small Business Administration; Central Ohio Women’s Business Center; Key4Women/KeyBank; Kroger Co. and the ODD’s Minority Contractors Business Assistance Program.

Source

November 13, 2009

Former bankers look to buy failing banks: report

Filed under: money — Tags: , — Gladiator @ 8:09 pm

Some former bankers are planning to bid for failing banks in the Federal Insurance Deposit Corp auction process, and getting financial backing from Wall Street firms like Goldman Sachs Group Inc and Deutsche Bank AG, the Wall Street Journal reported citing sources.

JPMorgan Chase & Co’s former Chief Executive William Harrison, former Wachovia Corp CEO Robert Steele and Herb Boydstun, former CEO of Hibernia Corp were among the banking veterans considering such plans, the paper said citing people familiar with the situation.

Last month, former executives at Citizens Financial Group Inc, a unit of Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC, raised $1 faxless payday loans.15 billion in a private placement and formed NBH Holdings Corp in an effort to buy battered banks, the Journal said.

Other bankers who are looking for investors to enter the auction include Charles Rinehart, former chairman and CEO of H F Ahmanson & Co and Daniel Healy, former finance chief of North Fork Bancorp, the Journal said citing sources.

(Reporting by Supantha Mukherjee in Bangalore; Editing by Valerie Lee)

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October 30, 2009

Pay czar: I don’t want more authority

Filed under: management — Tags: , , — Gladiator @ 3:45 am

Washington’s so-called "pay czar" Kenneth Feinberg cautioned lawmakers against extending his authority to the hundreds of other companies that accepted government bailout money.

Speaking before the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform Wednesday, Feinberg said his recent review of executive pay packages at the seven biggest bailout firms was "justified" given the government’s massive stake in these companies.

Appointed by President Obama in June, Feinberg has spent the past five months carefully reviewing pay practices at those companies in order to both protect American taxpayers’ investment and position the firms to pay back bailout money as soon as possible.

Still, he indicated that intervening in how banks and other companies that accepted money under the Treasury Department’s Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP, would amount to nothing more than "micromanaging."

"That is where my authority should end," Feinberg said, according a copy of his prepared remarks before lawmakers. "I do not believe it necessary or wise to broaden my jurisdiction or make my legal authority more pervasive."

That sentiment was echoed by some lawmakers Wednesday who expressed concerns by the government’s unprecedented level of oversight into how workers in the private sector are paid.

"The successes of the past in America should not, in fact, be wiped away because of the sins of a few on Wall Street who perhaps, realizing that bulls and bears were both making money, decided to become pigs," said Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Calif., the ranking member for the committee.

Last week, the pay czar issued his first in what will be a series of rulings on compensation, ordering 50% pay cuts, on average, for 136 executives at AIG (AIG, Fortune 500), Citigroup (C, Fortune 500), Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), General Motors, its former finance arm GMAC, as well as Chrysler and Chrysler Financial.

Feinberg now turns to the pay plans for the next 75 most-highly paid employees at each firm . He also will need to review pay plans for 2010 for all seven companies.

Last week’s ruling only applies to compensation during the months of November and December but will serve as a base for determining how these executive are paid next year.

Feinberg warned Wednesday that issues like "grandfathered" retention contracts and other guaranteed forms of compensation could be particularly thorny issue in the months ahead.

"There will undoubtedly be new compensation issues which will confront us in 2010," he said.

He also faces the tough task of sorting through some $198 million in retention payments owed to workers in AIG’s Financial Products division, the unit that led to that company’s near collapse.

Feinberg said Wednesday that this issue remained a "top priority" for him and that he hoped to resolve it through negotiations with AIG in the coming months.

More pay changes to come?

There are also signs that Feinberg’s ruling is reviving the debate over whether lawmakers need to implement their own legislative constraints on pay.

One key proposal, which has the support of President Obama, would give shareholders at public companies a so-called "say on pay" for senior management by providing them a non-binding vote on executive pay packages.

Feinberg, a long-time Washington attorney who was thrust into the public spotlight earlier this decade after overseeing compensation payments to September 11 victims, said Wednesday the issue was "worthy of consideration" by lawmakers.

One key hope, however, was that other companies on Wall Street and across corporate America, would use his pay ruling as a model for how they reward employees going forward.

"Hopefully the model that is created in my report will trickle and expand beyond these seven companies," he said. 

Source

October 26, 2009

U.S. Economy: Existing Home Sales Surge on Tax Credit

Filed under: management — Tags: , , — Gladiator @ 4:39 am

Sales of existing U.S. homes surged a record 9.4 percent in September as Americans rushed to take advantage of a tax credit for first-time buyers before it expires next month.

Purchases rose to a 5.57 million annual rate, more than forecast and the highest in more than two years, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The median price fell at the slowest pace in a year as the number of houses on the market shrank.

While sales may cool unless Congress decides to extend the $8,000 credit due to expire Nov. 30, lower prices and mortgage rates have also made houses more affordable and may cushion any decline. Smaller price decreases show the market is stabilizing as demand improves, easing the strain on consumer finances that deepened the worst recession since the 1930s.

“The excess supply of unsold homes has declined a lot and this reduces the downward pressure on home prices,” said Harm Bandholz, an economist at UniCredit Global Research in New York. “An improvement in house prices is an important condition for an increase in housing wealth and therefore higher willingness of households to start spending again.”

Stocks retreated, wiping out the week’s gains, as a decrease in oil prices hurt energy shares and disappointing results from the largest U.S. railroad hurt industrials. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index closed down 1.2 percent at 1,079.60 in New York.

Record Gain

The September increase in combined sales of single-family houses and condominiums was the biggest since comparable records began in 1999.

Existing home sales were forecast to rise to a 5.35 million annual rate, according to the median forecast of 76 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 5 million to 5.6 million, after an initially reported 5.1 million rate in August. Resales reached a 4.49 million pace in January, their lowest level since comparable records began in 1999.

Purchases of existing homes were up 9.2 percent compared with a year earlier. The median price fell to $174,900, down 8.5 percent from a year ago and the smallest decrease in 13 months.

The number of previously owned homes on the market dropped 7.5 percent to 3.63 million in September. At the current sales pace, it would take 7.8 months to sell those houses, the lowest level since March 2007. A seven months’ supply is usually consistent with stabilization in prices, NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said in recent months.

Distressed Sales

The share of homes sold as foreclosures or otherwise distressed properties was 29 percent in September from 31 percent in August, Yun said.

Today’s report showed sales of existing single-family homes climbed 9.4 percent, the biggest gain since 1986, to an annual rate of 4.89 million. Sales of condominiums and cooperatives increased 9.7 percent to a 680,000 rate.

Purchases increased in all four regions, led by a 13 percent surge in the West. Purchases climbed 9.6 percent in the Midwest, 9 percent in the South and 4.4 percent in the Northeast.

Purchases of previously owned homes, which make up more than 90 percent of the market, are tabulated when sales close and therefore reflect contracts signed a month or two earlier. Sales of newly built residences, which make up the rest, are counted when a contract is signed, and may therefore cool months before the tax credit expires. Buyers must close before the Nov. 30 deadline to be eligible for the tax credit.

Extend Credit

Last month’s sales were “heavily dependent” on the tax credit, the NAR’s Yun said in a press conference.

The Realtors’ group and the National Association of Home Builders are lobbying to extend the first-time homebuyers credit on concern demand will wane after it lapses. Lawmakers this week took up the call.

“The work of stabilizing the housing market won’t be done” when the credit expires next month, Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd said during a panel hearing. “We still need to use every tool at our disposal to fix this problem.”

Dodd, a Democrat from Connecticut, and Republican Senator Johnny Isakson of Georgia, a former real estate agent, urged their colleagues to extend the credit through next June.

The Federal Reserve this week said its 12 district banks saw “stabilization or modest improvements” in many areas of the economy, led by housing and manufacturing. “Most districts reported that housing market conditions improved in recent weeks, primarily from a pickup in sales of low- to middle-priced houses,” the Fed said in its Beige Book of economic conditions in September and early October.

Housing-related companies are still trying to recover. USG Corp., North America’s largest maker of gypsum wallboard, posted its eighth straight net loss last quarter as sales dropped 32 percent from the same time last year.

“The residential housing market appears to have stabilized, but it has done so at a very low level,” Chief Executive Officer William Foote said Oct. 21 on a conference call with analysts.

Source

October 23, 2009

EU Members Must Start Cutting Budget Deficits in 2011

Filed under: business — Tags: , , — Gladiator @ 1:39 pm

European Union nations should begin cutting budget deficits swollen by emergency government spending by 2011 “at the latest,” according to a draft of a statement to be issued after next week’s summit in Brussels.

“The bold policy response to the economic and financial crisis is now starting to bear fruit,” according to the draft, prepared by the Swedish government, which will chair the Oct. 29-30 meeting. “To anchor expectations and reinforce confidence, it is necessary to prepare a coordinated strategy for exiting” stimulus policies so that budget deficits are cut “beyond the benchmark 0.5 percent” of output, it said.

At least 20 EU governments, including those of Germany and the U.K., will breach the 27-nation bloc’s deficit ceiling of 3 percent of gross domestic product this year and next, the European Commission estimates. The EU’s average budget shortfall is forecast to be twice the limit both years.

The statement would be the first time EU leaders set a deadline to begin budget restraint since the region entered the recession last year. By doing so, the region’s governments are signaling their seriousness about trimming borrowing over time without choking off the nascent recovery next year, said Stephane Deo, chief European economist at UBS in London.

“A lot of people were worried that there would be tightening next year; now we know that that’s not going to happen,” he said. “Yet the current situation is totally unsustainable. You have to do fiscal tightening at some point” and 2011 is an “appropriate” time to do so, he said.

Deficit Spending

Deficit spending can only be successful in stabilizing the economy as long as financial markets and the public view it as temporary, the European Commission, the EU’s Brussels-based executive, said on Oct. 14. The commission forecasts that debt among the 16 nations using the euro will rise to 77.7 percent this year and 83.8 percent in 2010 from 69.3 percent last year.

“The new and main challenge is to get public finances in order as soon as possible after the crisis, and to prepare the social-security system for an aging population,” Alexander Kockerbeck, a senior European analyst at Moody’s Investors Service, said today in an interview.

At the same time, the EU is being careful not to stifle growth. The euro-area economy will shrink 4 percent this year, the commission estimated on Sept. 14. The latest forecast for 2010, issued in May, projects a 0.1 percent contraction.

Central Banks

“Support by governments and central banks should not be withdrawn until the recovery is fully secured,” according to the draft summit statement.

Even 2011 will be more of a turning point on deficits rather than a sudden about face on taxes or spending, Deo said.

“The next debate will be about whether this will cause a double dip in 2011,” he said. “I don’t think so because I don’t think politicians will all of a sudden jump on the breaks and kill the recovery. It’s more about smoothing this out over a number of years, about entering a phase of consolidation.”

Source

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