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February 13, 2012

Greece faces further obstacles in bailout deal

Filed under: banks, term — Tags: , , , — Gladiator @ 9:16 pm

Greece faces further hurdles and delays before it can receive a second, euro130 billion ($171 billion) bailout in spite of its lawmakers voting through more austerity measures in the face of violent protests.

The European Union’s Economic Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn on Monday called the Greek parliament’s approval of a further round of budget cuts a “crucial step forward,” but Germany insisted it would still take some time before the second bailout is delivered.

Germany, which as Europe’s biggest economy pays the largest part in bailout deals, said it wouldn’t give its final approval for the new aid payments until early March _ after it becomes clear how many banks and investment funds are willing to take losses on their Greek bonds and the parliament in Berlin votes on the new measures.

Pushing the new bailout back for several weeks underlines the amount of distrust that has built up against Greece over the past two years, when many promised cuts and reforms were passed in its Parliament but never actually implemented.

But it also means that Greece, its citizens, and the rest of the world economy won’t know for several weeks whether the country can avoid a potentially disastrous default. A bankruptcy could force Greece out of Europe’s euro currency union, drag down other troubled eurozone countries and further roil global markets.

“Germany is trying to get the best deal it can by putting pressure on Greece now,” said Ben May, European economist at Capital Economics in London. The idea is to “give Greece a bit more of an incentive over the next few weeks to speed things up and get things moving.”

But delaying the final approval of the bailout is not without risk. Uncertainty over the new rescue money could dissuade some of Greece’s private investors from participating in a separate bond swap deal, May warned. A hitch in getting the bailout package through national parliaments in the eurozone could also push Greece perilously close to missing a euro14.5 billion bond redemption on March 20, he added.

Greece’s political leaders scrambled over the weekend to get new far-reaching austerity measures through Parliament ahead of a meeting of the finance ministers from the 17 euro countries on Wednesday. The drastic cuts debated on Sunday included axing one in five civil service jobs over the next three years and slashing the minimum wage by more than a fifth.

As Greek lawmakers voted on the new cuts, the streets of Athens and other cities were rocked by violent protests. In Athens, at least 45 buildings were burned while dozens of stores and cafes were smashed and looted. Police arrested at least 74 people and detained a further 92, while in several cases they had to escort fire crews to burning buildings after protesters prevented access.

However, the Greek Parliament’s vote hasn’t brought an end to the uncertainty. Apart from some technical decisions, several key issues remain:

_It is unclear whether the new spending cuts, the debt relief deal and the new bailout will be enough to bring Greece’s debt load down to 120 percent of economic output by 2020 _ the maximum its international creditors perceive as sustainable.

Several weeks ago, the EU estimated that there was still a financing gap of around euro15 billion ($20 billion) and an EU official on Monday could not say whether the gap has since decreased instant payday loan lenders. There is hope that the European Central Bank, which also holds a significant amount of Greek debt can help close that gap by forgoing profits on those bonds.

_Greece’s debt sustainability depends on whether enough private investors participate in a bond swap designed to slice some euro100 billion ($132 billion) off Greece’s euro350 billion ($464 billion) debt pile. Athens wants banks and other investment funds to exchange their old Greek bonds for new ones with half the face value, lower interest rates and longer repayment deadlines. But the deal will only work if almost all private bond holders take part. If not enough of them sign up, Greece could still pass new legislation that could force holdouts to participate.

_Athens still needs to spell out how exactly it plans to cut an extra euro325 million in spending this year. The sum was included in the austerity package that passed through parliament, but Greece hasn’t said where the money will come from. An EU official said Monday that much of the euro325 million could come from further cuts to Greece’s defense budget.

_The other 16 countries that use the euro are still waiting for the leaders of Greece’s two main political parties to commit in writing to implementing the new austerity measures even after elections expected for April. Both the Socialists and the center-right New Democracy party backed the package in the parliamentary vote, but New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras has said that he disagrees with some of the measures.

_National parliaments in Germany, Finland and the Netherlands will have to vote on the second bailout package. Since those countries are traditionally most critical of bailouts, the votes are unlikely to happen before there is clarity on whether the bailout deal will actually make Greece’s debt sustainable again. Germany said its parliament will vote on Feb. 27.

Germany’s insistence on taking more time to decide whether it is willing to send more bailout money to Greece means the final decision on the rescue loans will have to be split from the bond swap deal.

The swap offer for private investors has to be launched this week so that it can be completed ahead of March 20, when Greece has to redeem some euro14.5 billion in bonds.

The finance ministers from the other 16 countries that use the euro as their currency could give Greece the green light to make the swap offer to investors at their meeting Wednesday, which would give investors several weeks to decide whether to participate.

However, the finance ministers “will have to provide the private sector with some assurances on the second bailout in order to for them (the private bondholders) to look at the deal and make a real judgment,” said Capital Economics’ May.

“Everything takes place or nothing takes place and that by definition makes it a more complicated and time consuming process,” May warned. “Assuming a deal is put in place, it’s likely to come right down to the wire.”

__

Juergen Baetz in Berlin and Elena Becatoros in Athens contributed to this story.

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February 9, 2012

Greece facing ‘dramatic dilemma’

Filed under: legal, loans — Tags: , , , — Gladiator @ 12:28 am

Greek political leaders were meeting Wednesday to hammer out an agreement on austerity reforms as the nation scrambles to avoid a default.

Prime Minister Lucas Papademos and the leaders of Greece’s governing coalition are debating a draft of reforms aimed at cutting public spending, including layoffs, minimum wage reductions and pension reforms.

Greece needs to finalize the austerity program soon to pave the way for a second bailout of €130 billion from the European Union, International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank. Without these funds, Greece could miss a €14.5 billion bond redemption in March.

If the leaders can agree to the austerity measures, Papademos is expected to call a cabinet meeting, followed by a largely symbolic vote in the Greek parliament. The whole process could take several days to finalize.

The negotiations were postponed twice this week amid political wrangling and protests by Greek labor unions. But the pressure to reach a deal was on after finance ministers from the 17 nations that use the euro announced plans to hold an impromptu meeting Thursday.

The finance ministers will discuss the situation in Greece, according to a spokesman for Eurogroup president Jean-Claude Juncker.

"The president has decided it is the right time," for the ministers to meet, the spokesman said. "Discussion is needed now."

What’s next for Europe?

Greece, which owes some €330 billion, has come close to default before.

The nation has struggled to follow through on austerity measures and economic reforms that were a condition of its 2010 bailout package. But the Greek economy has been in recession for years and many analysts warn that additional austerity could make the situation worse.

Papademos announced Sunday that party leaders had agreed on the "main elements" of the program, including a plan to reduce public spending by 1 no fax cash loans.5% of gross domestic output this year.

On Monday, Papademos and Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos met with officials from the EU, IMF and ECB, collectively known as the troika.

In a statement issued after the meeting, Venizelos said the Greek people face a "dramatic and acute dilemma."

The austerity reforms under discussion will have "very high social costs," he said. But if negotiations fail, that would bankrupt the country and lead to "even greater sacrifices," he warned.

"The finalization of the new loan agreement and receipt of money is vital for the salvation of Greece," said Venizeols.

Meanwhile, Greece appears close to a deal with its creditors in the private sector to write down a portion of the nation’s debt.

My Big Fat Greek speculative rally

The agreement, which would result in significant losses for bondholders, is intended to help reduce Greece’s debts to 120% of GDP by 2020, from about 160% currently.

The worsening Greek economy has raised calls for the nation’s creditors in the "official sector" to provide some relief.

The European Central Bank, which holds an estimated €30 billion to €45 billion of Greek debt, is under pressure to forego profits on those bonds, as are individual euro area central banks.

The ECB is reportedly considering a plan to swap its Greek bonds, which the bank bought at a discount, for securities issued by the European Financial Stability Facility. The ECB would reportedly not suffer a loss on the transaction, but the move could help save Greece €11 billion.

– CNN’s Elinda Labropoulou contributed reporting from Athens.  

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February 7, 2012

Output Growth May Slow on Global Risks: China - Bloomberg

Filed under: economics, marketing — Tags: , , , — Gladiator @ 9:32 am

China

February 5, 2012

Saudi Aramco Raises March Oil-Price Differentials to Europe, Cuts to U.S. - Bloomberg

Filed under: banks, finance — Tags: , , , — Gladiator @ 6:32 pm

Saudi Arabian Oil Co., the world

January 31, 2012

Higher oil prices lift Exxon’s 4Q profit

Filed under: houses, real estate — Tags: , , , — Gladiator @ 9:44 pm

Soaring oil prices helped Exxon Mobil post a slightly higher fourth-quarter profit. But a slowdown in production and lower natural gas prices are worrying investors.

Exxon’s oil and natural gas production fell 9 percent during the quarter. The drop came even after the company spent a record $36.8 billion last year to explore for more energy. Exxon’s stock price fell $1.74, or 2 percent, to $83.75 a share in midday trade.

Exploration can take years to yield more oil and gas. Some of Exxon’s biggest investments recently have been in U.S. natural gas fields, which so far haven’t paid off because prices are at the lowest level in a decade.

Its $29 billion acquisition of XTO Energy two years ago has been a disappointment, Oppenheimer & Co. analyst Fadel Gheit said.

The deal, which overnight made Exxon America’s biggest natural gas producer, hasn’t generated the kind of profits that investors expected.

Gheit said the company needs to consider cutting production. “They don’t want to have dead wood dragging them down,” he said.

The business Exxon is best known for, oil, drove results during the quarter. In the final three months of the year, the company sold crude for 27 percent more than a year earlier.

That boosted net income to $9.4 billion, or $1.97 per share, in the fourth quarter, compared with $9.25 billion, or $1.85 per share, a year earlier. Revenue rose nearly 16 percent to $121.6 billion.

Exxon produced an average of 4.5 million barrels of oil and natural gas a day. That’s nearly twice as much as Chevron Corp., America’s second-largest petroleum company.

But the output is less than what Exxon’s wells produced the year before. That’s partly because some of fields matured and produced less. Also, many contracts in foreign countries limit the amount of oil that Exxon can keep and sell as prices rise.

Earnings in Exxon’s exploration and production business rose 18 percent thanks to higher prices.

But those same prices hurt its refining business, where income dropped 63 percent. The refineries have struggled to pass along to customers the higher cost of oil used for gasoline, diesel and other fuels. That’s because demand is slowing in many parts of the world.

Stricter rules on car and truck fuel economy are expected to keep demand low for years in the U.S. and Europe.

As result, large oil and gas companies have been shedding refining operations, especially in developed markets.

Exxon announced Sunday that it is selling its Japanese refining and marketing business to partner TonenGeneral Sekiyu K.K. for $3.9 billion following an extended slide in Japanese fuel demand. The deal is expected to close mid-year.

Exxon’s chemicals business saw profits decline 49 percent.

For the full year, Exxon’s net income rose 34.8 percent while revenue rose 26.9 percent.

Last week, Chevron Corp. said profits slipped 3.2 percent. ConocoPhillips reported a 66-percent increase in quarterly earnings, though much of that came from the sale of a pipeline and other assets. Royal Dutch Shell expects to report its financial results later this week.

Shares of Exxon Mobil Corp. fell 91 cents to $84.58 in early trading.

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January 23, 2012

Spain Risks Deficit Spiral as Election Postpones Budget Cuts: Euro Credit - Bloomberg

Filed under: money, mortgage — Tags: , , , — Gladiator @ 7:04 pm

Spain

January 20, 2012

Bonds Show Return of Crisis Once ECB Loans Expire: Euro Credit - Bloomberg

Filed under: Audit, online — Tags: , , , — Gladiator @ 1:12 pm

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi

January 9, 2012

Jobs Data in U.S.

Filed under: Uncategorized, online — Tags: , , , — Gladiator @ 4:40 am

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said the Fed probably won

January 5, 2012

Companies Add 325,000 to Payrolls in December - Bloomberg

Filed under: economics, technology — Tags: , , , — Gladiator @ 10:48 pm

Companies added more workers than forecast in December, a sign that the U.S. labor market was gaining momentum heading into 2012, according to a private report based on payrolls.

The 325,000 increase was the highest in records going back to 2001 and exceeded the highest projection in a Bloomberg News survey after a revised 204,000 gain the prior month, the report from the Roseland, New Jersey-based ADP Employer Services showed today. The median estimate called for an advance of 178,000.

An acceleration in hiring may spur further gains in consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the world

December 31, 2011

German minister: will stabilize eurozone in 2012

Filed under: finance, houses — Tags: , , , — Gladiator @ 11:24 pm

Germany’s finance minister says he is confident that Europe’s politicians will manage to stabilize the eurozone in 2012 and keep the continent’s common currency together.

Wolfgang Schaeuble acknowledged in an interview with business daily Handelsblatt published Friday that major problems that have built up over a long time remain to be tackled in some countries.

However, he added, “I think we will be far enough along in the next 12 months that we will have banished the dangers of contagion and stabilized the eurozone.”

Asked whether he could rule out the 17-nation eurozone breaking up, Schaeuble was quoted as saying: “According to everything that I know at the moment, yes.” He insisted that Europe’s politicians “are doing everything to prevent the common currency falling apart.”

“Of course, the European Union cannot force anyone to stay in if they don’t want to belong any more,” he added. “But no such development can be seen at the moment.”

Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, is a key player in the long-running battle to stem the eurozone debt crisis. It has backed the strategy of getting governments to embark on often-savage austerity measures to reduce deficits.

But it has opposed measures such as issuing jointly backed eurobonds and argued that there is no quick fix to the crisis, expressing great skepticism about the wisdom of a major government bond-buying drive by the European Central Bank that is advocated by many as a way of forcing down struggling countries’ borrowing costs guaranteed fast personal loans.

“The talk of bazookas and the like only leads to us not tackling sustainably the causes of the crisis,” Schaeuble was quoted as saying.

The eurozone will quickly face new challenges in 2012, with both Italy and Spain needing to borrow large amounts of money early in the new year. Both countries face high borrowing costs.

Schaeuble acknowledged that Europe’s refinancing needs in early 2012 are “not trivial.”

“But the more we win back confidence on the markets, the more investors … will invest in the eurozone, and not just in German bonds,” he said. “There is no shortage of money worldwide.”

“In case of doubt, a somewhat higher interest rate has to be paid for some government bonds,” Schaeuble said. “That is not damaging per se and also can encourage the understanding that we have to tackle the actual causes of the crisis: overly high debts and a lack of competitiveness.”

Schaeuble said he sees no sign of a credit crunch in Germany. Asked about other countries, he pointed to the ECB’s moves to provide massive long-term loans to banks.

“Given the measures the ECB has taken to provide banks with liquidity, it is hard to imagine that banks would not be in a position to provide sufficient loans to business,” he said.

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