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March 31, 2011

Tainted seafood fears spread as Japan plant leaks

Filed under: management, marketing — Tags: , , , — Gladiator @ 2:11 am

Fears about contaminated seafood spread Wednesday despite reassurances that radiation in the waters off Japan’s troubled atomic plant pose no health risk, as the country’s respected emperor consoled evacuees from the tsunami and nuclear emergency zone.

While experts say radioactive particles are unlikely to build up significantly in fish, the seafood concerns in the country that gave the world sushi are yet another blemish for Brand Japan. It has already been hit by contamination of milk, vegetables and water, plus shortages of auto and tech parts after a massive quake and tsunami disabled a coastal nuclear power plant.

Setbacks at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear complex mounted Wednesday, as the plant’s operator, Tokyo Power Electric Co., announced that its president was hospitalized. Masataka Shimizu has not been seen since a news conference two days after the March 11 quake that spawned the destructive wave. His absence fueled speculation that he had suffered a breakdown.

Spokesman Naoki Tsunoda said Shimizu, 66, was admitted to a Tokyo hospital Tuesday after suffering dizziness and high blood pressure.

The problems at the nuclear plant have taken center stage, but the tsunami also created another disaster: Hundreds of thousands of people were forced from their homes after the wave drove miles (kilometers) inland, decimating whole towns. The official death toll stood at 11,362 late Wednesday, with the final toll likely surpassing 18,000.

Japan’s respected Emperor Akihito and Empress Michiko visited disaster evacuees at a center in Tokyo on Wednesday. The visit was marked by a formality that is typical of interactions with the royal couple, but survivors said they were encouraged.

“I couldn’t talk with them very well because I was nervous, but I felt that they were really concerned about us,” said Kenji Ukito, an evacuee from a region near the plant who has already moved four times since the quake. “I was very grateful.”

The emperor and his wife make fairly frequent public appearances, visiting nursing homes and the disabled and attending ceremonies throughout the year. In particular, they are expected to mourn with those affected by natural disasters. Akihito made a similar visit to evacuees after the Kobe earthquake in 1995.

At the Fukushima plant, the fight to cool the reactors and stem their release of radiation has become more complicated in recent days since the discovery that radioactive water is pooling in the plant, restricting the areas in which crews can work. It also puts emergency crews in the uncomfortable position of having to pump in more water to continue cooling the reactor while simultaneously pumping out contaminated water.

That contamination has also begun to seep into the sea, and tests Wednesday showed that waters 300 yards (meters) outside the plant contained 3,355 times the legal limit for the amount of radioactive iodine.

It’s the highest rate yet, but Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency official Hidehiko Nishiyama said it did not pose any threat to human health because the iodine rarely stays in fish. There is no fishing in the area because it is within the evacuation zone around the plant.

Radioactive iodine is short-lived, with a half-life of just eight days, and in any case was expected to dissipate quickly in the vast Pacific Ocean. It does not tend to accumulate in shellfish.

Other radioactive particles have been detected in the waters near the plant, and some have made their way into fish. Trace amounts of radioactive cesium-137 have been found in anchovies as far afield as Chiba, near Tokyo, but at less than 1 percent of acceptable levels.

“We have repeatedly told consumers that it is perfectly safe to eat fish,” said Shoichi Takayama, an official with Japan’s fishery agency.

Citing dilution in the ocean, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has played down the risks of seafood contamination online payday loan lenders.

But, as with other reports of radiation levels in food and tap water, fear has begun to override science. Several countries, including China, India and South Korea, have ordered special inspections for or outright bans on fish from areas near the plant.

Ren Cheng, a spokesman for Taiwan’s Mitsui Food & Beverage Enterprise Group that operates several upscale Japanese restaurants in Taipei, said his company has seen a 50 percent drop in revenue since the crisis began.

“We are not importing any food products from Japan. All the Japanese ingredients we are using were all procured before the quake,” he said. “We have put up signs in our restaurants to reassure costumers about the safety of our food.”

Domestic consumption, however, is far more important to Japan, which imports far more seafood than it exports. According to the fisheries agency, the domestic catch typically totals around 5.5 million tons. Less than a million of that gets exported, while another nearly 3 million tons are imported.

In stores near Tokyo’s famed Tsukiji fish market, fresh fish was selling poorly.

Instead, customers “are stockpiling” frozen fish, in the hopes it was caught before radiation began to climb, said Hideo Otsubo, who works at a seafood company near the market.

Tourism to Japan has fallen sharply since the disaster, and sushi chef Akira Ogimoto blamed that dropoff for a 30 to 40 percent decline in customers to his restaurant near the market, where the daily tuna auction is a big draw for foreigners.

Add on the radiation fears, and fishermen are worried their livelihoods will be threatened just when they need to rebuild their homes.

“I worry we won’t be able to sell our seaweed. If the radiation ruins our fishing, we are lost,” said Toshiaki Kikuchi, a 63-year-old innkeeper and seaweed farmer in Soma, a city near the troubled plant.

Meanwhile, TEPCO’s bungling response to the nuclear emergency has been severely criticized by the government and the press. The first few days after the quake saw fires and explosions and confusion has reigned throughout, and the company _ whose shares have plunged nearly 80 percent _ has frequently retracted or corrected information.

There has also been criticism that safeguards were lax at the Fukushima plant. The nuclear agency ordered plant operators nationwide on Wednesday to review their emergency procedures. The agency told utilities they must have on hand mobile backup generators and fire engines, which have been used at Fukushima to cool the reactors. The operators must report back to the agency within a month.

TEPCO chairman Tsunehisa Katsumata apologized at a news conference for the company’s missteps. He has stepped in for the hospitalized president, but fears of a leadership vacuum remained. And Katsumata himself acknowledged that operations could deteriorate if Shimizu were hospitalized for a long time.

“In case of a long absence, it seems to me decisions might not be made smoothly,” Katsumata told reporters.

The company also acknowledged for the first time it would have to completely scrap at least four of the plant’s reactors _ a fate experts and the government had already condemned them to.

The missteps at TEPCO have sparked calls from the opposition for its nationalization, and the Yominuri Shimbun newspaper, citing anonymous sources, said the government was considering it. But Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano denied those reports.

“My understanding is that the government is not considering such an option at this moment,” Edano said Tuesday. He was more circumspect when asked again Wednesday, but reiterated that the company must work to resolve the crisis and compensate victims.

Source

March 29, 2011

Berlusconi Hedges Bets on Libya War by Pushing for NATO - Bloomberg

Filed under: marketing, online — Tags: , , , — Gladiator @ 11:17 am

Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s push for NATO to take command of the Libyan no-fly zone shows how Muammar Qaddafi’s former friend is trying to hedge his bets over the civil war in Italy’s one-time colony.

“Italy is in a tight spot; it has the most to lose,” said Nicolo Sartori, an analyst at the Rome-based Institute for International Affairs. “If NATO takes over and things are run from Italy, this can be presented to rebels as proof Italy did its part to help.” If Qaddafi wins, Italy can say that “it only got involved when the international community rose up.”

Italy, Libya’s biggest trading partner, has threatened to withdraw access to its military bases unless the North Atlantic Treaty Organization take charge of operations. The country’s airfields, which include NATO bases, are closer to Libya than the sites now being used in France and the U.K.

A rebel victory would leave the African oil supplier under new ownership, threatening Italy’s Eni SpA (ENI), the dominant foreign crude producer since Qaddafi came to power in 1969. Qaddafi has called Berlusconi a traitor for participating in the campaign and has threatened to replace Eni, Finmeccanica SpA and other Italian companies with Russian and Chinese rivals.

‘Very Resentful’

The U.S. and U.K. say they favor the idea of a single command under NATO over the current U.S.-led control structure. French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who lobbied European leaders to back a no-fly zone before the United Nations endorsed the idea, has resisted a shift to NATO control.

U.S. President Barack Obama said yesterday that “he had no doubt” control of the operation would be turned over to an international coalition and that NATO could be ready to assume control “over the next several days.”

“The Italian authorities are very resentful of a British or French premiership over Libya, and a way to dilute their role and make it more palatable for Italy is to put it under NATO,” said Arturo Varvelli, a researcher at the Institute for International Political Studies in Milan.

France opened the attacks against Qaddafi’s forces from its military bases, and the country’s high-profile role in the campaign has led investors to speculate it may be trying to curry favor with the rebels in a post-Qaddafi Libya.

“There is some concern the French might try to gain economic advantages from their role,” said Patrizio Pazzaglia head of financial investments at Bank Insinger de Beaufort NV in Rome, who owns Eni shares. Paris-based Total SA “may lobby for a share of future concessions that also interest Eni for example,” he said.

Ancient Rome

Italy’s presence in Libya dates back to ancient Rome’s occupation of the region. This year marks the 100th anniversary of the start of modern Italy’s 30-year colonization of Africa’s third-largest oil producer. Eni, Europe’s fourth-biggest oil company, entered the country more than half a century ago and relies on the nation for about 15 percent of its production.

Oil output has fallen by three quarters since the start of the conflict and may come to a complete halt, Shokri Ghanem, chairman of Libya’s National Oil Co., said on March 19. Libyan rebels in Benghazi said they’ve created a new national oil company, possibly leaving Eni’s contracts in limbo.

French rival Total produces about 55,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day in Libya, about a fifth of Eni’s output.

Eni will continue to work in Libya “whatever the political system,” Chief Executive Officer Paolo Scaroni, told a parliamentary committee in Rome on March 16 online pay day loans.

‘Mad Dog’

For now, Italian companies in Libya are bracing for a hit to 2011 earnings. Ansaldo STS, a railway-technology company, said the Libyan unrest may cost it 100 million euros ($142 million) of revenue this year, more than 5 percent of forecast 2011 sales. Finmeccanica SpA (FNC), the defense contractor that owns Ansaldo, had about 600 million euros in Libyan sales last year.

The Libyan civil war also threatens to undo Berlusconi’s efforts to ensure Italy remains Libya’s biggest trading partner. Berlusconi courted Qaddafi after U.S. sanctions were lifted against Libya in 2004. He led a succession of world leaders willing to put Libya’s past as a sponsor of terrorism and a developer of nuclear weapons behind them and go into business with Qaddafi, once dubbed the “mad dog of the Middle East” by former U.S. President Ronald Reagan.

Former U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair and former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder both visited Libya in search of contracts during their tenure. Qaddafi traveled to Paris in 2007 to meet with Sarkozy.

‘Privileged Status’

Still, it was Italy, with its historic and cultural links, that gained the most from Qaddafi’s rehabilitation, culminating with the 2008 “Friendship Treaty” between the two nations. As reparation for its former colonial rule, Italy agreed to invest $5 billion to build a highway, using Italian construction companies such as Astaldi SpA (AST) and Impregilo SpA. (IPG) The agreement led Eni to announce plans for $25 billion of new investment in the coming decades.

Qaddafi, in turn, pledged to further open Libya to Italian companies, curb illegal immigration and invest his oil dollars in Italy. The country’s central bank and main sovereign wealth fund own a 7.2 percent stake in UniCredit SpA (UCG), Italy’s biggest bank. The shares, with a market value of 2.4 billion euros, have been frozen under European Union sanctions against Qaddafi. Libyan funds also own 2 percent of Finmeccanica, 7.5 percent of soccer team Juventus SpA, and the Libyan Investment Authority also holds about 1 percent of Eni, its former deputy CEO Mustafa Zarti said in a March 9 interview.

Berlusconi’s close ties to Qaddafi have at times raised hackles in Italy. In March of last year, Berlusconi kissed Qaddafi’s hand at an Arab League summit in Sirte, Libya, a sign of deference generally reserved for the Pope. Prior to a ceremony last August in Rome, Qaddafi organized two “parties” where 700 young women were paid to listen to the Libyan leader extol Islam and seek their conversion.

“If Qaddafi stays, he’s a pariah and they can’t deal with him as before,” Sartori said. “If the rebels win with the help of the French, Italy won’t have the privileged status it had before.”

Source

March 24, 2011

New home sales slowest in at least a half-century

Filed under: loans, real estate — Tags: , , , — Gladiator @ 2:04 am

Home construction in the United States is all but coming to a halt.

Americans are on track to buy fewer new homes than in any year since the government began keeping data almost a half-century ago. Sales are now just half the pace of 1963 _ even though there are 120 million more people in the United States now.

The sliding sales show just how far the housing market has fallen since the bubble burst four years ago. And they’re a blow to the economy recovery as it draws strength from other places.

Diminished sales have driven the median price of a new home down to about $202,000, the lowest since 2003. If the sluggish sales continue, analysts say, small homebuilders will fold, meaning less competition as the market improves and higher prices later.

“The longer it goes on, the more builders will drift away from the industry altogether,” said Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist of Capital Economics.

Ashworth noted that a surge in foreclosures is forcing down prices for previously occupied homes even faster than they’re falling for new homes. As a result, new homes are less attractive to buyers.

“That’s not going to change for at least another year or two,” Ashworth said. “Under these conditions, you can’t really see homebuilders willing to ramp up, and that’s bad for buyers.”

Sales of new homes plunged in February to an annual rate of 250,000, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. It was the third straight monthly drop. The pace is far below the pace economists say is healthy, about 700,000 a year.

Last year, 323,000 new homes were sold _ the worst year on record and the fifth straight year of declines. Economists don’t expect this year to be any better and say it could take two years or more before sales return to a healthy pace.

In 1963, when the U.S. population was about 190 million _ compared with today’s nearly 310 million _ far more new homes were sold: 560,000.

New homes have accounted for just 5 percent of all sales so far this year. They typically represent closer to 15 percent. There were just 183,000 new homes available for sale in February, the smallest supply in four decades.

The median price of a new home is now percent higher than that of a resold home, twice the typical markup in a healthy economy.

Builders have responded by scaling back. In February, they broke ground on only about 40 percent of the number of homes they typically do in normal markets.

That decline in activity is weighing down the construction industry, which in the past has fueled economic recoveries. It’s also slowing the broader economy. Each new home creates an average of three jobs for a year and $90,000 in taxes, according to the National Association of Home Builders.

People are still looking at new homes, builders say. But many would-be buyers say they can’t justify the cost.

For starters, it’s cheaper to buy used _ especially if you can get a foreclosed home or a short sale, when lenders let homeowners sell for less than they owe on their mortgage.

Banks are imposing tougher standards for loans and requiring bigger down payments. And many people are nervous about entering the market, fearful that home prices have yet to reach the bottom.

Gregory F. Ugalde has been encouraged by increased foot traffic at his model homes in recent months. But Ugalde, president of Connecticut homebuilder T&M Building Co., is building only about a third of the homes he did before the housing boom began in 2003.

“Over the past year, we thought the recovery in our industry would be right around the corner,” Ugalde said. “It’s like they’re teasing us.”

Buyers say the same could be said for builders.

Tony Michaels wanted to buy a new home for his wife and 3-year-old son. He looked 35 miles north of Washington, in the town of Eldersburg, Md. In October, he found a home that could be built for $800,000.

But once he included a dishwasher, windows and other amenities, the cost ballooned to $950,000. And Michaels had trouble putting his current home on the market.

“We just started looking at houses that were already out there, and they weren’t that bad at all,” he said. “We’ve worked hard, and we wanted a home to call our own. But while an old home is not our first choice, we’re going to save a lot of money.”

The asking price for the home he found is nearly $425,000 less than the new home he had planned to buy.

The disparity has led homebuilders to cut their selling prices and build more inexpensive homes. New homes that cost between $150,000 and $200,000 now make up a third of sales _ the biggest such proportion in records going back more than a decade.

“Falling housing prices of existing homes are robbing demand for new houses, and until that changes, the housing market will be in trouble,” said Yelena Shulyatyeva, an analyst at BNP Paribas.

Source

March 22, 2011

Japan nuke plant work plods on as evacuees weary

Filed under: Uncategorized, technology — Tags: , , , — Gladiator @ 11:03 am

Weariness and anxiety percolated Tuesday among people who left their homes near Japan’s radiation-shedding nuclear complex as the meticulous if urgent work to bring the overheated plant under control dragged on.

Workers, pulled from the complex Monday afternoon after smoke or steam billowed from buildings housing two damaged reactors, resumed their work Tuesday. Their goal is to finish hooking up electrical systems and check and replace damaged pumps and related machinery to power up cooling systems at plant, crippled by this month’s massive 9.0-magnitude earthquake and tsunami.

Electricity was restored to one of the least troublesome of Fukushima Dai-ichi’s six nuclear reactors. Still a new concern emerged: a storage pool holding 2,000 tons of older, spent nuclear fuel is also heating up, forcing emergency teams to divert water sprayed on other reactors there.

People at Fukushima city’s main evacuation center waited in long lines for bowls of hot noodle soup. A truck delivered toilet paper and blankets. Many among the 1,400 people living in the crowded gymnasium came from communities near the nuclear plant and worry about radiation and weary of the daily routine of the displaced.

“It was an act of God,” said Yoshihiro Amano, a grocery store owner whose house is 4 miles (6 kilometers) from the reactors. “It won’t help anything to get angry. But we are worried. We don’t know if it will takes days, months or decades to go home. Maybe never. We are just starting to be able to think ahead to that.”

Public sentiment is such that Fukushima’s governor rejected a meeting offered by the president of Tokyo Electric Power Co., or Tepco, the utility that runs the nuclear plant.

“What is most important is for TEPCO to end the crisis with maximum effort. So I rejected the offer,” Gov. Yuhei Sato said on national broadcaster NHK. “Considering the anxiety, anger and exasperation being felt by people in Fukushima, there is just no way for me to accept their apology.”

The nuclear crisis has added a broader dimension to the disaster unleashed by the March 11 earthquake and tsunami that pulverized the northeast coast, leaving more than 9,000 dead by official count and twice that in police estimates.

Fears about radiation are reaching well beyond those living near Fukushima and the 430,000 displaced by the earthquake and tsunami to encompass large segments of Japan. Traces of radiation are being found in vegetables and raw milk from a swath of farmland, forcing a government ban on sales from those areas.

Seawater near the Fukushima plant is showing elevated levels of radioactive iodine and cesium, prompting the government to test seafood no fax cash advances.

China, Japan’s largest trading partner, has ordered testing of imports of Japanese food. The World Health Organization has urged Japan to adopt stricter measures and reassure the public.

Government officials and health experts say the doses are low and not a threat to human health unless the tainted products are consumed in abnormally excessive quantities. But the government measures to release data on radiation amounts, halt sales of some foods and test others are feeding public worries that the situation may grow more dire.

“We acknowledge this situation has caused anxiety among the general public but even if the accident hadn’t happened we would be monitoring and taking action if the government’s very conservative standards are exceeded,” the government’s spokesman, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano, said at a briefing.

In the first five days after the disasters struck, the Fukushima complex saw explosions and fires in four of the plant’s six reactors, and the leaking of radioactive steam into the air. Since then, every day that passes without a major accident is a good sign, experts said.

An official of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission said in Washington that Units 1, 2 and 3 have all seen damage to their reactor cores, but that containment is intact. The commission’s executive director, Bill Borchardt, said that “things appear to be on the verge of stabilizing.”

The Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency said that radiation seeping into the environment is a concern and needs to be monitored. “We are still in an accident that is still in a very serious situation,” said Graham Andrew, senior adviser to IAEA chief Yukiya Amano.

IAEA monitoring stations have detected radiation 1,600 times higher than normal levels _ but in an area about 12 miles (20 kilometers) from the power station, the limit of the evacuation area declared by the government last week.

Radiation at that level, while not high for a single burst, could harm health if sustained. If projected to last three days, radiation at those levels would U.S. authorities would order an evacuation as a precaution.

The levels drop dramatically the further you go from the nuclear complex. In Tokyo, about 140 miles (220 kilometers) south of the plant, levels in recent days have been higher than normal for the city but still only a third of the global average for naturally occurring background radiation.

Source

March 20, 2011

american millionaires add 600,000 to ranks in 2010

Filed under: online, usa — Tags: , , , — Gladiator @ 8:08 pm

The number of U.S. millionaires increased by 600,000 in 2010, according to a report by Spectrem Group.

About 8.4 million American households had assets of $1 million or more, not including their primary residences, a gain of 8 percent, according to Chicago-based Spectrem. The figure is still below the 2007 high for millionaires, when there were 9.2 million in the U.S., Spectrem said.

“The recovery is doing better in this population, probably better than for Main Street America,” said George Walper Jr., president of Spectrem. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index returned 15 percent last year.

The number of ultra-high-net-worth households, which Spectrem defines as those with $5 million or more in investable assets, increased 8 percent to 1 free instant credit score.1 million in 2010, the survey said.

Household wealth was $56.8 trillion at the end of 2010, according to the Federal Reserve. Millionaires control about 56 percent of U.S. wealth, according to a March 14 survey by Boston-based Fidelity Investments, the second-largest U.S. mutual-fund company after Vanguard Group Inc.

Source

March 19, 2011

G-7 countries announce joint currency intervention

Filed under: Audit, management — Tags: , , , — Gladiator @ 5:11 am

Finance officials from the Group of Seven major industrialized countries have agreed on coordinated currency intervention to support Japan’s economy following a devastating earthquake.

It will mark the first time the G-7 countries have jointly intervened in currency markets since the fall of 2000.

In a joint statement issued following emergency discussions, the G-7 officials said that the United States, Britain, Canada and the European Central Bank will join with Japan in a “concerted intervention” in currency markets Friday paydayloans.

Source

March 17, 2011

Britons’ Inflation Expectations Rise 4%, Highest Level Since August 2008 - Bloomberg

Filed under: business, marketing — Tags: , , , — Gladiator @ 2:16 pm

Britons’ inflation expectations rose to the highest level in 2 1/2 years in February, adding pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates.

People questioned last month expected consumer prices to increase 4 percent over the following year, the central bank said in a quarterly survey published in London today. That was the highest reading since August 2008 and compares with expectations of 3.9 percent in November.

Consumer-price growth quickened to twice the bank’s 2 percent target in January and officials predict a further acceleration in coming months. A pickup in expectations may require policy makers to increase interest rates by mid-year to prevent a cycle of rising wages and prices, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said yesterday.

“If they don’t take the inflation mandate seriously it is a mistake,” Buiter said. Inflation above the target for so long suggests you’re a “bad forecaster” and “it may communicate to the world that you don’t take the mandate seriously.”

The Bank of England report also showed that the majority of respondents, 65 percent, said they intended to respond to expectations of higher inflation by shopping around for cheaper goods and services. Just 9 percent said they would push for higher wages.

Data yesterday indicated U.K. wage settlements remain subdued. Weekly pay excluding bonuses rose 2.2 percent in the three months through January from a year earlier, compared with a 2.3 percent pace in the quarter through December. Including bonuses, pay growth was 2.3 percent.

Interest-Rate Outlook

Sixty-two percent of respondents in the Bank of England survey expect the key interest rate to rise over the next 12 months, up from 52 percent in November. The survey was conducted by GfK NOP, which questioned 3,929 people aged 16 and over between Feb. 10 and Feb. 22.

Asked about inflation in about five years’ time, the median answer was 3.5 percent compared with 3.3 percent in November. Expectations for inflation in the 12 months from February 2012 rose to 3.4 percent from 3.2 percent.

Asked to give the current rate of inflation, respondents gave a median answer of 4.4 percent compared with 3.9 percent three months previously. The actual rate was 4 percent in January.

‘Futile Gesture’

Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said earlier this month that while raising rates too soon would be a “futile gesture,” there is still a “perfectly reasonable case for doing it now.” He argued the effect of higher commodity prices on inflation will prove temporary.

Central banks around the world are facing increasing inflation pressures as global demand recovers and commodity prices surge. Crude oil has jumped by about 35 percent in the past six months and remains close to $100 a barrel.

Minutes of the Bank of England’s March 10 decision published next week will show whether a four-way split persisted among policy makers as they argue about the need to raise the key interest rate from the current record low of 0.5 percent.

The bank’s central projection, published in its quarterly inflation report last month, showed that price growth will peak at an average of 4.5 percent in the third quarter and ease to the 2 percent goal in 2013.

Source

March 15, 2011

Japan boosts holdings of US debt in January

Filed under: mortgage, online — Tags: , , , — Gladiator @ 11:20 pm

Japan increased its holdings of U.S. government debt for an eighth straight month in January. But the second-largest holder of U.S. Treasury bonds will likely scale back its purchases of foreign holdings, and even sell off some, in coming months to divert money toward rebuilding a nation devastated by a powerful earthquake and an ensuing nuclear crisis.

The Treasury Department said Tuesday that Japan boosted its holdings 0.4 percent to $885.9 billion in January.

Economists said a reduction in Japan’s foreign holdings would put some upward pressure on U.S. interest rates. But they cautioned the change would have a limited impact.

The Federal Reserve, which has been buying Treasury securities as part of its efforts to keep interest rates low, would move to counteract any significant increase in rates, they said.

“Any impact from the sales would be short-term and relatively small,” said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Insight.

China, the second-largest holder of U.S. debt, reduced its holdings for a third straight month, trimming them 0.5 percent to $1.15 trillion.

Overall, foreign holdings of Treasury securities rose 0.3 percent to $4.45 trillion in January. This data is carefully followed to determine whether foreign countries still have an appetite for Treasury debt at a time of record federal deficits.

If the biggest buyers of U.S. debt began trimming their holdings significantly, that could send interest rates higher not just on government debt but also on consumer loans and business loans. That would slow America’s economic recovery and increase Washington’s costs for financing the $14.3 trillion national debt.

Source

March 14, 2011

Manufacturing Keeps Fueling Expansion: U.S. Economy Preview - Bloomberg

Filed under: management, usa — Tags: , , , — Gladiator @ 8:23 am

U.S. industrial production probably rose in February for a third month in the last four, indicating manufacturing remains a stalwart of the expansion, economists said before a report this week.

Output at factories, mines and utilities climbed 0.6 percent after a 0.1 percent decrease in January, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey ahead of Federal Reserve figures on March 17. Other data may show less home construction and contained inflation excluding food and fuel.

Orders are rising at companies like Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN), signaling factories are boosting an economy still held back by housing-market weakness. With wage growth restrained and limited signs businesses are passing along higher energy costs, Fed policy makers meeting this week may stick to their plan of buying Treasuries aimed at bolstering growth.

“Manufacturing has been a driver of the recovery thus far and this will remain the case,” said Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at RBC Capital Markets Corp. in New York. “Demand is starting to return and inventories are light relative to that, so restocking will provide a boost. For the Fed, it’ll be fairly status quo on policy, except for some comment about firmer energy and commodity prices.”

The strength in manufacturing continued into this month. The Philadelphia Fed’s general economic gauge, on March 17, and the New York Fed’s Empire State index, two days earlier, will show factory expansion in the respective regions this month, economists forecast.

Orders Rising

“We have seen orders build through the quarter,” Ron Slaymaker, vice president of investor relations for Dallas-based Texas Instruments, said on a conference call with analysts March 8. “Based upon what we’re seeing through the first two months, we would expect that orders will be up solidly compared to the fourth quarter.”

Manufacturing shares have outperformed the broader market over the past year. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Supercomposite Machinery Index has surged 40 percent in the last 12 months through March 11, compared with a 13 percent gain in the S&P 500.

At the same time, expanding economies in Asia and Latin America are generating greater demand for commodities and lifting prices. Escalating turmoil in Libya and unrest in the Middle East have pushed up crude oil. Oil futures the New York Mercantile Exchange have increased about 10 percent this year.

Consumer Prices

The consumer price index, the broadest of three price measures issued by the Labor Department, rose 0.4 percent for a third month, according to the Bloomberg survey median. So-called core prices, which exclude volatile food and fuel, likely rose 0.1 percent after a 0.2 percent gain in January. The figures are due on March 17.

Compared with a year earlier, the core CPI rose 1 percent for a second month, according to the median estimate.

Wholesale costs increased for an eighth consecutive month in February, spurred by higher prices for fuel and other commodities, economists projected ahead of the data due March 16 business cards. A day earlier, another Labor Department report may show the cost of goods imported into the country posted the fifth straight monthly gain.

Fed officials meeting March 15 are about half way through their second round of bond purchases that’ll pump $600 billion into the financial system by June. Along with the so-called quantitative easing, they will probably maintain their policy of keeping the benchmark rate near zero.

The central bank’s preferred price gauge, which excludes food and fuel, rose 0.8 percent in January from a year earlier, matching December’s year-over-year gain, the smallest in five decades of record-keeping. Fed officials aim for long-run overall inflation of 1.6 percent to 2 percent.

Bernanke on Inflation

Higher oil and commodity prices probably won’t cause a permanent increase in broader inflation, and borrowing costs are likely to stay low, Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said in his semiannual monetary policy testimony to Congress.

Experience with such price gains in recent decades, along with currently stable labor costs, suggests a “temporary and relatively modest increase in U.S. consumer price inflation,” Bernanke told lawmakers on March 2. “The economy’s recovery is not firmly established, and we think monetary policy needs to be supportive.”

The economy’s weak link is housing, which is depressed by foreclosures and falling prices. Housing starts fell 4.4 percent after a 15 percent jump in January that reflected a surge in multifamily units, economists projected ahead of Commerce Department data on March 16.

Builders remain pessimistic. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo confidence index, due on March 15, rose to 17 this month from 16 in February, according to economists surveyed. Readings below 50 mean more respondents said conditions were poor.

Bloomberg Survey ============================================================== Release Period Prior Median Indicator Date Value Forecast ============================================================== Empire Manu. Index 3/15 March 15.4 16.1 Import Prices MOM% 3/15 Feb. 1.5% 0.9% NAHB Housing Index 3/15 March 16 17 PPI MOM% 3/16 Feb. 0.8% 0.7% Core PPI MOM% 3/16 Feb. 0.5% 0.2% Housing Starts ,000’s 3/16 Feb. 596 570 Housing Starts MOM% 3/16 Feb. 14.6% -4.4% Building Permits ,000’s 3/16 Feb. 563 570 Building Permits MOM% 3/16 Feb. -10.2% 1.2% CPI MOM% 3/17 Feb. 0.4% 0.4% Core CPI MOM% 3/17 Feb. 0.2% 0.1% CPI YOY% 3/17 Feb. 1.6% 2.0% Core CPI YOY% 3/17 Feb. 1.0% 1.0% Ind. Prod. MOM% 3/17 Feb. -0.1% 0.6% LEI MOM% 3/17 Feb. 0.1% 1.0% Philly Fed Index 3/17 March 35.9 29.7 ==============================================================

To contact the reporter on this story: Shobhana Chandra in Washington at schandra1@bloomberg.net

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March 12, 2011

Stocks inch higher after Japan earthquake

Filed under: mortgage, usa — Tags: , , , — Gladiator @ 5:28 pm

Stocks finished a down week with modest gains Friday as investors gauged the fallout from a massive earthquake that struck off the coast of Japan and triggered tsunami waves from Asia to California.

The prospect of falling oil demand from Japan sent crude oil prices down to $101 a barrel. Industrial and materials companies rose on expectations that they will benefit from Japan’s rebuilding efforts.

One day after its biggest fall since August, the Dow Jones industrial average gained 59.79 points, or 0.5 percent, to 12,044.40. The S&P 500 rose 9.17, or 0.7 percent, to 1,304.28. The Nasdaq composite gained 14.59, or 0.5 percent, to 2,715.61.

In addition to the earthquake, oil prices fell after a scheduled day of protests in Saudi Arabia only drew a few hundred people, and the capital remained quiet. Oil traders have been worried the violence in the Middle East and North Africa would spread to the world’s No. 1 oil exporter.

“The market is going to be see-sawing back and forth” until the long-term effects of the unrest in the Middle East and the disaster in Japan become clear, said Anthony Chan, chief economist for J.P. Morgan Wealth Management.

The earthquake and oil protests largely overshadowed a report from the Commerce Department that retail sales rose 1 percent in February, the biggest gain in four months and more than the 0.8 percent analysts had expected. Shoppers laid out more cash for cars, clothing and gadgets in February, leading to an eighth month of gains.

Despite Fridays’ gains, each index finished the week lower. The Dow fell 1 percent, while the broader S&P index lost 1.3 percent.

Stocks fell sharply Thursday on weak economic news from China, the U.S. and Spain combined with a slump in oil company shares. The Dow Jones industrial average had its biggest drop since August 11. Other than several large swings in the past month, stocks have been climbing steadily since September.

“It could be time for a well-deserved rest,” said Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist for Schaeffer’s Investment Research. “The markets had a spectacular six-month rally and now they’re showing some slight cracks.”

The quake caused a selloff in global stock markets, led by sharp drops in insurance companies. Japan’s Nikkei closed down 1.7 percent. The yen remained stable, however, because it is seen as a relatively safe investment for international traders.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. treasury note rose to 3.40 percent from 3.37 percent late Thursday.

Two stocks rose for every one that fell on the New York Stock Exchange. Volume came to 920 million shares.

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