Japan's credit rating was raised one level to Aa3 by Moody's Investors Service, which said the government will keep trying to restrain spending to reduce debt.
The increase on long-term, local-currency debt from A1 “was prompted by expectations of continued fiscal restraint and consolidation, coupled with an easing-out of the debilitating effects of deflation,'' Thomas Byrne, senior vice president of Moody's, said in a statement. “The government and ruling party is firmly committed to fiscal consolidation.''
Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda last week reaffirmed his pledge to balance the budget by 2011 so that the government can cut the world's largest public debt. Economists say Japan hasn't done enough to pare its borrowings, which the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development estimates stand at 182 percent of gross domestic product.
“I wonder why Moody's is upgrading now while Japan still faces a harsh fiscal environment,'' said Seiji Adachi, a senior economist at Deutsche Securities Inc. in Tokyo. “On the top of that, they probably downgraded too far before.''
The increase to the fourth-highest investment grade brings Moody's assessment in line with Fitch Ratings' AA- and one notch below Standard & Poor's AA, and puts Japan on a par with Taiwan and Cyprus. Moody's raised the rating to A1 eight months ago.
Moody's assigned Japan the top Aaa rating in 1993, and since 1998 made four cuts as the nation's borrowings swelled. Even with today's upgrade, Japan is still the lowest among the Group of Seven industrialized nations by Moody's measurement. Within the G-7 only Italy and Japan have ratings below Aaa.
Four Cuts
The yen traded at 106.01 per dollar at 2:04 p.m. in Tokyo from 106.28 before the announcement. The yield on Japan's 10- year bond fell 1.5 basis points to 1.595 percent.
“News on Moody's upgrade was a big surprise,'' said Yuji Saito, head of foreign-exchange sales at Societe Generale SA in Tokyo. “This is all because we Japanese think the Fukuda administration is reluctant to cut spending and the Japanese economy is slowing.''
Japan's budget deficit is set to widen for the first time in five years as social-security costs rise in one of the world's most rapidly aging societies.
Investors have purchased more default protection on Japan's debt this year to guard against the risk that the government will become unable to repay it. Credit-default swaps on Japanese government debt were at 16.5 basis points on June 27 compared with 8.5 at the end of 2007, according to CMA Datavision prices.
By comparison, contracts on South Korea were quoted at 106 basis points on June 27, indicating a higher risk of default.
Bank of Japan
Moody's said Japan's economy is “resilient'' to a global slowdown and added that it didn't expect any “preemptive'' interest-rate increases by the Bank of Japan because inflation in the world's second-largest economy is still lower than in other countries.
The central bank's benchmark overnight lending rate is 0.5 percent, the lowest in the industrialized world. Consumer prices excluding fresh food climbed 1.5 percent in May, the fastest pace in a decade.
Further improvement in the nation's debt rating hinges on government efforts toward “sustained fiscal consolidation'' and debt reduction, and a falling birthrate and rising welfare costs will be headwinds for Japan, Moody's added.
Japan's banks are “in a relatively favorable position,'' having avoided the worst of the subprime mortgage collapse that made financial institutions less willing to lend money in the U.S. and Europe, Moody's said.
Stable Financial System
“The Japanese financial system is stable, especially compared to U.S. and European markets,'' said Hidetoshi Ohashi, a credit analyst with Morgan Stanley in Tokyo. He said the higher rating may lead to upgrades at banks and public entities.
Moody's was criticized by the government and summoned to parliament in 2002, when it cuts its rating to A2, the sixth highest. Masajuro Shiokawa, then the nation's finance minister, called Moody's “out of touch with reality.''
Overseas investors held only 5.1 percent of outstanding government bonds as of the end of September 2006, according to the Ministry of Finance.
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